Rash: Trump is risking America’s — and Minnesota’s — key relationship with Canada

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Cold fronts are supposed to come from Canada, not the other way around.

But preceding President Donald Trump’s meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump sent a frosty message on his Truth Social account, saying in part that although he wanted to work with his Canadian counterpart, the U.S. is “subsidizing” Canada by $200 billion a year and gives the country “FREE” military protection.

Trump then wrote: “We don’t need their Cars, we don’t need their Energy, we don’t need their Lumber, we don’t need ANYTHING they have, other than friendship, which hopefully we will always maintain. They, on the other hand, need EVERYTHING from us! The Prime Minister will be arriving shortly and that will be, most likely, the only question of consequence.”

Carney, quietly exuding his characteristic competence and confidence that along with an anti-Trump sentiment led his Liberal Party in late April to a stunning come-from-behind victory, did soon arrive for a meeting that was warmer than Trump’s cold note. But the tension was evident in several exchanges, including on what shouldn’t be a question of consequence: Canada’s sovereignty, which has been challenged by Trump’s rhetoric (indeed, insults), including calling Canada the “51st state” and Carney’s predecessor “governor” instead of acknowledging his stature as prime minister. Beyond internet trolling, the international trade and diplomatic hostility has led many on both sides of the border to conclude that Trump wants to try to annex Canada.

Carney diplomatically turned to Trump’s business background in saying, “As you know from real estate, there are some places that are not for sale.” Referencing the White House itself as well as Buckingham Palace, Carney continued that Canada “won’t be for sale, ever.”

“Never say never,” Trump retorted.

Canadians have said never. America’s president should respect that and end the disrespect of a neighboring nation that not only doesn’t get “FREE” military protection but one whose armed forces have often paid the ultimate price alongside Americans in two world wars and in answering America’s call for allied action in Afghanistan after 9/11.

There are, of course, some things that are rightfully for sale, including an endless array of goods and services that benefit both countries.

Canada, which Carney reminded Trump “is the largest client of the United States,” is consistently one of America’s top two trading partners, with an estimated $762.1 billion worth of goods trade in 2024 and $140.3 billion in services trade in 2023, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, which reports that the U.S. has a $63.8 billion trade deficit in goods and a $31.7 billion trade surplus in services.

Minnesota-Canadian trade is a key component of that, with total trade in goods valued at $22 billion in 2024, a 5% increase since the previous year, according to the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. Canada continues to be Minnesota’s largest export market, with a value of $7.5 billion, a 7% increase. Imports from Canada were $14.7 billion (up 4%), reflecting an overall trade deficit of $7.2 billion.

Key categories of exported products include mineral fuels and oils as well as vehicles and machinery, which account for about half of exports. Agricultural and mining products are significant too, as is electrical equipment as well as optic and medical devices.

Consequentially, Canadian-based companies employed 28,000 Minnesotans, the most of any country. Scores more indirect jobs resonate regionally as well, including in the crucial tourism sector in which Canadians account for 55% of international visitors, according to Explore Minnesota.

“The United States and Minnesota in particular have gained tremendously from this international relationship, both on trade and international investment,” said Bradley McDonald, who teaches the Humphrey School’s global economics course. McDonald, who has held roles with the U.S. government, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization, said that “it would be a harmful and painful adjustment to stop that sort of a relationship, certainly in the extreme, and anything in that direction is a negative — it causes higher prices, supply chain disruptions — and I just don’t see why we want to do that when we have gained so much from that relationship.”

But disruption is here, in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs on several sectors and countries, including Canada, which along with Mexico and America is party to the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) that replaced NAFTA during the first Trump administration — a deal that Trump said on Tuesday had to be replaced.

Replacing trade agreements is one thing. Replacing trust is another. And that’s at risk with Trump’s economic and geopolitical aggression.

“It is not only the exchange of goods and services which is impressive, but it is also the closeness of the communities that are bordering Minnesota,” said Gabrielle Gerbaud, executive director of the Minnesota Trade Office. “Sometimes the big tariff statements don’t mention all those communities that are so interdependent, especially with the states [that] have a border with Canada, and how important it is from the small-business perspective and tourism and how these uncertainties or this aggressiveness toward our neighbors can create a really disheartening situation in those communities.”

This disheartening situation will indeed be felt up north first. But it will soon spread south throughout the state and then the nation. Economically, to be sure. But even emotionally, including in Canada, where many of this nation’s neighbors, said Gerbaud, “feel betrayed in this moment.”

Minnesotans — especially the Republican representatives whose constituents will bear the brunt of degraded Canadian-American ties — should push back on Trump and strive to make this a “moment,” not an era, of Canadians feeling betrayed.

And America’s president should hear and heed Canada’s prime minister when he says his country is not for sale and return America to something so invaluable it also doesn’t have a price tag: friendship.