Northstar Commuter Rail could be shut down

The long-struggling Northstar Commuter Rail line between Minneapolis and Big Lake may be shut down and replaced with bus service, according to a joint announcement Monday from the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) and the Metropolitan Council.

“As the world and consumer demand changes, we must be willing to be flexible and innovative to offer better service while saving dollars,” the two bodies said in a statement.

A firm timeline for a possible closure has not been determined.

The news comes after a MnDOT report released Monday found that transitioning to bus service between Minneapolis and St. Cloud would cost millions less than the status quo. It costs about $12 million annually to operate Northstar, a budget that would shrink to $2 million if buses were used.

“This is the beginning to finally end Northstar service, with its ridiculously low ridership, its ridiculously huge operating subsidies and its ridiculously expensive maintenance costs,” said Rep. Jon Koznick, R-Lakeville, who introduced a bill Monday at the Capitol to shutter the line.

Northstar, which began service in 2009, has long struggled to attract riders largely because its northern terminus is in Big Lake — and not in the more-populous St. Cloud, despite support from the business and academic communities to extend it there.

Ridership on Northstar cratered by nearly 98% during the pandemic as workers transitioned to remote work, with an average of 60 weekday rides reported in April 2020 with a $116 subsidy per passenger.

Although many employees have returned to the workplace since then, Northstar’s recovery has been lackluster, with just over 127,000 rides last year, renewing Republican lawmakers' chorus to shut it down.

Koznick’s bill to terminate Northstar service passed the House Transportation Finance and Policy Committee on Monday, and will be sent to the House floor for further debate.

“Taxpayers have been forced to subsidize a rail line that continues to underperform year after year, and it’s time to stop wasting $11 million annually on a project that simply doesn’t work to reduce congestion or move people,” Koznick said in a statement.

However several Democrats said the vote was premature, especially since the MnDOT report was released just hours before the committee hearing.

Northstar supporters testified Monday the line’s current schedule — four weekday trains and no weekend service (except for special events like Twins and Vikings games) — doesn’t reflect the new realities of commuting, when people need transit outside of traditional rush hours.

“We know travel patterns have changed” since the pandemic, Met Council Chair Charlie Zelle responded. He said bus service would likely be more frequent to reflect the new paradigm.

The study laid out different options for Northstar, but didn’t recommend that the service be terminated altogether. It explored the potential cost to extend service to the Fargo/Moorhead area, either by extending Northstar’s route, by expanding Amtrak service or by combining bus and train service.

MnDOT is studying an expansion of Amtrak’s popular Borealis service between Chicago and St. Paul to Fargo/Moorhead through Coon Rapids and St. Cloud.

Shutting down Northstar would involve unspooling contracts between MnDOT and the Met Council with BNSF Railway, which operates the line, as well as the state and the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), which partly funded the $320 million project.

The federal government and possibly the state would have to be reimbursed if Northstar is shut down, although it’s unclear how much. Congress would have to approve any waiver of those costs.

The remaining federal interest in Northstar is about $30 million to $35 million, according to the report, not including property and buildings along the line, which would need to be appraised to determine current market value.

When the grant was extended by the FTA more than 16 years ago to help build Northstar, property along the line was valued at about $111 million, with federal interest worth half the value, the report says. But the value of that property has likely increased since then.

“In the coming months, we will have more information, including timeline information and projected future savings,“ MnDOT and the Met Council said in their statement. ”For Minnesotans who currently utilize this service, we are committed to working with you to ensure you have access to high-quality transportation in this corridor.”