RandBall: What has happened to the supposedly mighty American League Central?

The division sent three teams to the playoffs last year and looked to be one of baseball’s best divisions this season. But that hasn’t panned out, as Michael Rand writes in Monday’s 10 things to know.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
July 7, 2025 at 3:13PM
The Twins are a very distant second behind the Tigers in the American League Central. (Jerry Holt/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Twins slumped badly in June with a 9-18 record while allowing a whopping 169 runs — almost twice as many as they allowed in April and May combined (173).

They’ve been a little better in July, squeaking out three one-run wins (after going 0-9 in one-run games since late May). That included two entertaining walk-off wins at Target Field over the weekend in a competitive series against a good Tampa Bay team.

A loss in the series finale Sunday dropped the Twins to 43-47, a far cry from the 34-27 mark they carried in early June before their slump. At that point, they were in second place in the AL Central, six games behind Detroit. Cleveland was right behind Minnesota at 33-27, while Kansas City was 32-29.

Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City all made the postseason a year ago after the Twins collapsed down the stretch. Conventional wisdom held that the AL Central could be among the best divisions in baseball this season, and that seemed true just a month ago.

Instead, only Detroit has plowed forward. The Tigers are 16-12 since June 4. The Twins are 9-20. The Royals are 11-19. And the Guardians, mired currently in a 10-game losing streak, are 7-21.

That has allowed the Twins to somehow still occupy second place in the division, albeit more by default and with a far more distant view of both the Tigers (13 ½ games back) and in the wild card race (five games back of third wild card Seattle, with three teams between the Twins and Mariners).

What happened? We know the Twins’ story: Pablo López’s injury coincided with a pitching slide that an inconsistent offense couldn’t offset.

The Guardians have scored just 15 runs during their 10-game losing streak, which was extended Sunday when Detroit rallied in the ninth.

Offensive woes have also doomed the Royals, who have scored an MLB-worst 304 runs this season.

(The White Sox, who were terrible last year and this year, are recused from the rest of the conversation).

None of the AL Central teams rank in the top half of MLB in payroll, but the same was true a year ago when the division produced three playoff teams.

That said, the margins for the Twins in particular are being exposed by their highest-paid player (Carlos Correa, $36 million, 0.0 wins above replacement) and highest-paid pitcher (Pablo López, $21.7 million, injured).

However we explain it, the bottom line is this: The AL Central was one of baseball’s deepest divisions in 2024 and for the first two months of 2025, but that is no longer the case now.

Here are nine more things to know today:

  • You’re telling me there’s a chance? FanGraphs still gives the Twins a 19.1% chance of making the postseason, which is more generous than I would have imagined.
    • Byron Buxton is the Twins’ lone All-Star (at least for now, before named pitchers bow out). His .879 OPS this season is actually not far off his typical production since 2019 (he’s had an OPS of at least .827 every year but one since then). Still, there is a lightness and energy to Buxton this season that we haven’t seen in a long time. All we ask: Three more months of this, please.
      • The MLB trade deadline is 24 days away. It’s a malleable date now, but it falls on the traditional July 31 this year.
        • Patrick Reusse and I talked all things Twins and more on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast. He’s already bracing for how he’s going to get to Target Field with the road construction in the west metro.
          about the writer

          about the writer

          Michael Rand

          Columnist / Reporter

          Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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