Souhan: Is Twins’ Pablo López a true ace? The 2025 opener, details from 2024 say maybe not

Pablo López on Thursday became the first Twins pitcher since Brad Radke to start a third consecutive Opening Day.

When the Twins made the playoffs in 2023 and won their first postseason series since 2002, López started and won Game 1 against Toronto.

He looks, works, talks, is treated as, and is paid like an ace.

The first of many premature questions we could ask in March 2025 is this:

Are we sure Pablo López is an ace?

Even if he pitches to his usual standards, could another Twin pass him in the rotation pecking order this season?

If you knew nothing about López and watched the Twins’ season opener Thursday, you would not have confused López with the leader of a pitching staff, even though he invests plenty of time and effort in acting like a leader.

Thursday, he allowed four runs, although just two earned, in five innings, striking out three and walking none, in the Twins’ 5-3 loss to the Cardinals in St. Louis.

He looked jittery, balking after the first batter reached first, and later throwing the ball into center field on a steal attempt. The Cardinals obviously had discovered a tendency and tried to exploit it, and López did not handle either situation with poise.

Had López reacted appropriately to either situation, the Twins may have won.

López gave up a two-run home run on a poor changeup. He was inefficient, throwing 87 pitches in five innings.

“If we didn’t win, then it wasn’t a successful game,” López told reporters in St. Louis. “If you look at my execution, there were definitely things I could have executed better.”

López gave up four runs in the first three innings. He was hurt by a few softly hit balls, but his poor reactions to baserunners and that hanging changeup shouldn’t be excused.

Not surprisingly, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had no interest in overreacting to one game or two mistakes.

“I think Pablo figured it out as the game went on,” Baldelli said. “I think he felt good probably halfway through his outing, and he’s an incredibly reliable decisionmaker out there. Obviously, to see a couple of plays out there where they take off early and we don’t record an out on them, yeah, I think everyone, including him, would be surprised by that. …

“All that said, I was glad he’s really started to figure out all of his stuff. His new changeup that he’s worked on looks like it’s going to be a good pitch. He looked good, looked strong … and I think he can build off that pretty well."

Now for an important disclaimer: Major league baseball’s Opening Day is the grandest and most nostalgic of opening days. It’s also, mathematically, the least meaningful.

An NFL opener represents 6% of the team’s regular season. A baseball opener represents .6% of the regular season. The 1991 Twins lost their opener and started 3-9, then won the World Series.

Results aside, you’d like to see a better performance from López on Opening Day. Will we see better overall performances from some of his teammates this season?

Last year, López posted an ERA of 4.08. Bailey Ober pitched almost as many innings (178 ⅔ to López’s 185⅓) and had a lower ERA (3.98) and gave up far fewer hits (136-180).

Joe Ryan made only 23 starts because of injuries but had the best ERA of any Twins starter, at 3.60.

Zebby Matthews and David Festa, the two young starters who should be first in line to come to the big leagues if the Twins need pitchers, both had higher strikeout rates than López, even while adapting to the big leagues. And that was before Matthews showed up at spring training with a new 97-mph fastball to complement his exceptional command and control.

It would be convenient for the Twins if the pitcher they traded for and paid to be their ace would pitch like their ace. But he’d make a productive No. 2 starter, if someone can outperform him over the course of this long season.