Minnesota Poll: Walz approval slips, voters evenly divided on whether he should seek third term

Gov. Tim Walz’s approval rating has dropped to 49% since his failed run for vice president last year, and about half of Minnesotans say he shouldn’t seek a third term in 2026, according to a new poll.

The results suggest the DFL governor could face headwinds if he runs for a third consecutive term, particularly from voters in greater Minnesota and suburbs outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

A majority of independents also disapprove of Walz’s performance, according to the new Star Tribune/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll, including about half who say he shouldn’t run for re-election.

Walz’s standing at home appears to have taken a hit since his turn on the national stage; a Minnesota Poll conducted last September found 53% of Minnesotans approved of Walz’s performance while 44% disapproved.

Fifty percent of those surveyed in the latest Minnesota Poll disapprove of Walz’s performance as governor, and just 1% are unsure. It’s only the second time Walz’s approval rating has fallen below 50% in the Minnesota Poll.

“I think he’s done harm to the state,” said Gary Bettcher, an 82-year-old Republican from Bloomington. “He makes a fool of himself trying to get on the national scene like he’s a big shot.”

(Scroll to the end of this article for full results for each question. More information about the poll methodology, a demographic breakdown of the sample and a map of the poll regions can be found at startribune.com/methodology.)

Walz hasn’t ruled out another run for national office in 2028, and he’s recently traveled to key states in the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating contest to give political speeches. He is still weighing whether to run for another term as governor and is expected to announce a decision this summer.

On the prospect of Walz seeking a historic third consecutive term, 49% of respondents said he should step down while 45% said he should run again. Six percent aren’t sure.

Minnesota Republicans say the poll numbers suggest Walz could be vulnerable next year. They’re seeking to win their first statewide election since Tim Pawlenty was re-elected governor in 2006.

“The fact that more voters want Walz to step aside than run again says it all: His time is up,” Minnesota GOP Chair Alex Plechash said in a statement Tuesday. “Outside of the DFL bubble, voters are sending a clear message—Governor Walz is out of touch and out of favor. Minnesota students are falling behind, fraud is rampant, and radical policies are taking priority over real people.”

Walz’s spokesman, Teddy Tschann, said Tuesday that “we’ve seen polls that show him up and down and everywhere in between.”

“Here’s what we know: Crime rates are down, graduation rates are up, and the Governor just balanced the state budget working with the most narrowly divided legislature in the whole country,” Tschann said in a statement. “Governor Walz remains focused on doing the work of governor and making Minnesota the best state to live, work, and raise a family.”

The Minnesota Poll findings are based on interviews with 800 Minnesota registered voters conducted June 16-18. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Men overwhelmingly disapprove of Walz’s performance and believe he shouldn’t run again, the poll found, while most women approve of the job he’s doing and support him seeking a third term.

Kathleen Jorde of South St. Paul said Walz has been a good governor and should run for re-election. She said she’d even like to see him run for president in 2028.

Jorde, 73, said she appreciates Walz’s support for public schools, including a policy he signed into law providing free school meals to all children.

“There’s been a lot of really positive things that have occurred in this state” during Walz’s tenure, Jorde said, “and it’s all for the betterment of the communities at whole.”

Bettcher criticized Walz’s handling of the 2020 riots and some of the progressive policies he signed into law: “When he came into office, we had a nice surplus. Where’d that go? And my taxes didn’t go down, my taxes went up.”

“It just doesn’t make sense,” Bettcher added. “Spend, spend, spend.”

In 2023, Walz and a DFL-controlled Legislature used most of a $17.6 billion surplus to pass a nearly $71 billion two-year budget, the largest in state history. It included some one-time spending while also creating new programs, such as free school meals.

Walz has strong support among voters in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties. But his approval rating is underwater in the rest of the state, including in other suburban counties, where 60% of voters said they disapprove of his performance compared to 39% who approve.

Gary Blanchard, a 62-year-old Republican from Lakeville, said he learned more about Walz’s “extremely liberal” record when the governor ran for vice president last year. He said Walz “squandered” the previous budget surplus and signed into law policies many Minnesotans disagree with.

A majority of college graduates and people of color approve of Walz’s performance and said they would support him running for re-election. Most white voters and people without college degrees disapprove and don’t want him to run again.

Among independents, who said they don’t lean toward either party, 54% disapprove of Walz’s performance in office. A slightly smaller share of independents, 51%, do not want Walz to run for a third term, while 40% do and the rest aren’t sure.

Justin Prisendorf, an independent from Orono, said he isn’t an enthusiastic Walz supporter, but he doesn’t see any reason not to elect him again, either. Minnesota remains a great place to live and work, and Walz deserves some credit for that, Prisendorf said, though he believes taxes are a little too high.

“The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know. If he feels there’s still work to be done and he can persuade 51% of the electorate that he still can contribute, why not?” said Prisendorf, 57, who runs a home health care agency.

David Sturrock, a political science professor at Southwest Minnesota State University, said the 4 point slide in Walz’s overall approval rating isn’t too alarming for a second-term governor. But he said Walz should be aware of the perils of seeking a third consecutive term.

Rudy Perpich was the only Minnesota governor in recent history to run for a third consecutive term in 1990, and he lost. Minnesotans tend to be skeptical voters, Sturrock said, and they could want change after eight years of Walz.

Sturrock said Walz’s approval rating in the suburbs outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties should be of particular concern as he weighs running for a third term.

“Approval rating in the outer suburbs, or the collar counties, should concern them,” he said. “The suburbs are where statewide elections are won or lost in Minnesota.”

Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc. interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between June 16 and June 18, 2025. Findings from questions about Gov. Tim Walz are below. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Details about how the poll was conducted, the demographics of the 800 respondents and a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll can be found at startribune.com/methodology.