Minnesota Poll: Donald Trump’s approval rating at 45%, similar to first-term highs

A majority of Minnesotans — 54%— say they disapprove of President Donald Trump’s first months in office, according to a new Minnesota Star Tribune/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota poll.

The poll of 800 registered voters, conducted before Trump launched attacks on Iran, found that 45% of Minnesotans approve of the work he’s done during his second term. That equals the highest approval rating he achieved in the Minnesota Poll during his first term.

Since January, Trump has fired thousands of federal workers, implemented sweeping tariffs, slashed federal funding for diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives and conducted nationwide immigration raids.

Poll respondent Beth Fahey of Eagan has never supported Trump because “he epitomizes everything I do not like,” she said, and especially objects to Republicans’ proposed cuts to Medicaid.

“I’m worried about education, about health care and about jobs,” Fahey said. “All the things the middle class, lower middle class people count on. I’m not a rich person, I’m not the 1 percent and that’s the only thing that Republicans’ agenda helps.”

(Scroll to the end of this article for full results for each question. More information about the poll methodology, a demographic breakdown of the sample and a map of the poll regions can be found at startribune.com/methodology.)

Daniel Randa 70, from Cloquet said he was once a Democrat but has voted for Trump since 2016. He says he likely will never vote for Democrats again because he believes they are “so far off the scale.”

“Look what the Democrats did to us, they tried to put us into a socialist country,” Randa said, citing former President Joe Biden’s age as a factor. “Look what they did with the illegals, look what they did with the border, look what he looks like, he couldn’t run this country.”

Randa says the economy and immigration were the biggest reasons he voted for Trump, who lost Minnesota last year but received 46.9% of the vote compared to 45.4% in 2020 and 44.9% in 2016.

The poll found Trump had the strongest support among men, white Minnesotans, people 50 and older and those without a college degree. His strongest disapproval came from the Democratic strongholds of Hennepin and Ramsey counties, from women and younger Minnesotans between the ages of 18 and 34. Respondents with college degrees also strongly disapproved of Trump’s performance.

Trump’s strongest support came from Minnesota suburbs outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties and from greater Minnesota.

Gary Poole, 77, of Maplewood is a Republican who’s supported Trump since 2016. He said he views Trump as more supportive of law enforcement.

“I trust in him more than any of the other candidates that were out there,” Poole said. “I’ve seen what he did in his first presidency and the economy was better, life was much better.”

Forty-seven percent of respondents said they believe Trump has acted within his authority as president, while 52% say they think he’s gone beyond his authority.

Gayle Christensen, 78, identifies as a Democrat and said she doesn’t believe Trump is qualified to be president.

“I’m fearful for my great-granddaughters and my grandchildren,” the Blaine resident said. “Yes, when I was growing up, we had some hard times. But we knew we weren’t going to lose our democracy.”

Christensen said the assassination of Minnesota Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, prompted her to attend the No Kings protest against Trump at the State Capitol.

“It was the best thing I ever did,” Christensen said.

Trump’s support has slipped 2 percentage points from the same time last year, when he was a presidential candidate. His lowest approval rating in the Minnesota Poll was in September 2018 at 39%.

Trump’s popularity in Minnesota is slightly below other national polls, but a number of factors could boost that, notably a national security crisis, University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said, days before Trump struck Iran.

“Sometimes you see what’s known as the rally around the flag effect, where the country supports the president as a sense of emergency and unity,” Jacobs said. “If the U.S. gets involved in a war in Iran, that’s a possibility, particularly if there are casualties on the American side.”

But a war could also hurt Trump, Jacobs notes, and the economy could change the way voters view him.

“My general expectation is Donald Trump’s approval rating is low and may well decline further,” Jacobs said. “If that happens, it’s going to be a real hurdle for the Republicans heading into the 2026 elections.”

The poll’s findings are based on interviews with 800 registered Minnesota voters conducted from June 16 to 18, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was conducted after Trump had deployed the National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles to quell protests over his immigration policies and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids.

The poll found 52% of Minnesotans opposed Trump’s decision to send the National Guard to Los Angeles, while 47% backed the move. Support for those tougher measures was stronger in the suburbs outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties and across greater Minnesota, with 54% saying they supported the crackdown in L.A.

Jacobs said that support is significant because the suburbs are the battleground of the state. Jacobs said that could also mean Trump’s law-and-order messaging is resonating with voters there who may be reminded of the 2020 riots following George Floyd’s murder in Minneapolis.

“That’s a great number for Donald Trump,” Jacobs said.

Jacobs said the GOP will likely lean into law-and-order messaging in the 2026 election cycle.

“Whichever party wins in the suburbs are going to win the gubernatorial race and they may well gain the majority in the Legislature,” Jacobs said.

Republicans criticized Gov. Tim Walz’s delayed response to the 2020 riots during the 2024 presidential campaign, a theme that’s continued as he’s remained a national figure in the party and was on full display when Walz testified at a U.S. House Oversight hearing on “sanctuary policies” earlier this month.

For Randa, Walz’s handling of the riots and Trump’s contrasting response to the Los Angeles protests remains top of mind.

“[Trump] ain’t gonna watch ’em burn like Walz did with Minnesota,” Randa said.

Emma Nelson of the Minnesota Star Tribune contributed to this story.

Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc. interviewed 800 Minnesota registered voters between June 16 and June 18, 2025. Findings from questions about President Trump and presidential authority are below. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Details about how the poll was conducted, the demographics of the 800 respondents and a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll can be found at startribune.com/methodology.