Douglas: Pretty good odds of severe thunderstorms Saturday

Sunday appears to be the drier, sunnier day statewide with highs in the 80s.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
June 27, 2025 at 11:01PM

Weird but apparently true: Every year in Minnesota the odds of being injured crashing into a deer are roughly the same as being struck by lightning, roughly 1 in a million. Tornadoes “make news” and rightfully so, but a Reddit-based probability estimate suggests over a 50 year period your odds of actually seeing a tornado in Minnesota are only 1 in 6. A lot less than that over the Arrowhead. Something will get us (eventually) but odds are it won’t be the weather.

All that said, stay alert and keep an eye on the sky Saturday with a slight severe risk over much of Minnesota, mainly large hail and damaging straight-line winds. Sunday still appears to be the drier, sunnier day statewide with highs in the 80s.

A light northwest breeze keeps us dry and relatively comfortable Monday and Tuesday, but weather models show more showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and again next Friday for the Fourth of July. I’m hoping that forecast improves over time.

Odds of being injured messing with fireworks? Every year, 1 in 81,000. Careful.

about the writer

about the writer

Paul Douglas

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Paul Douglas is a nationally-respected meteorologist, with 40 years of broadcast television and radio experience. He provides daily print and online weather services for the Star Tribune.

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