I’m a big fan of Annie Duke’s Substack, “Thinking in Bets.” Duke is a former professional poker player who has written several books and speaks about decision-making.
In a recent post, director Zack Arnold poses questions from Duke’s book “Quit.” These are confusing times for many of us, so before we do something we regret, maybe we recast the questions we ask.
What do I know? And what don’t I know?
Instead of asking, “What’s going to happen next?” we can ask, “What do I know? And what don’t I know?”
There is far more that we don’t know than we do. For example, we don’t know what is going to happen in the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine.
We don’t know the duration, magnitude, or long-term impact of the tariffs. We don’t know the effects of the shifts in higher education, immigration and taxation.
And we don’t know the short-term direction of the markets or the dollar.
But we know what we are spending, what we own, what we owe. We know whether our will matches our wealth transfer wishes. We know what we have direct control over.
These are the things that you can and should impact.