RandBall: Frederick Gaudreau trade symbolizes end of Suter/Parise buyout era

In mid-July 2021, not long into the NHL offseason, Wild GM Bill Guerin made a choice to give the organization a hard and arguably necessary reset:

The Wild were buying out the last four years of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s contracts, taking on a manageable cap hit in Year One ($4.7 million), huge dead cap hits of $12.7 million to $14.7 million in Years 2-4 and negligible hits in Years 5-8 ($1.6 million).

In a statement at the time, which Guerin has repeated often in some form since, the GM said: “There were numerous factors that entered into the difficult decision to buy out their contracts, but primarily these moves are a continuation of the transformation of our roster aimed at the eventual goal of winning a Stanley Cup.”

The Wild wanted a different locker room culture and trajectory. But they also understood the reality.

And two weeks after those buyouts were announced, that reality led them to a player that would come to symbolize the most onerous of the buyout years: Frederick Gaudreau.

He signed a bargain two-year, $2.4 million contract in late July 2021 as a trusty but under-utilized center with just 103 NHL games to his name despite being 28 years old. He signed a five-year, $10.5 million extension after his second season — a raise but still a team-friendly deal.

Gaudreau proved to be durable and usually reliable, scoring 56 goals in four years with the Wild while playing all 82 games twice.

But as I noted on Friday’s Daily Delivery podcast in a conversation with Minnesota Star Tribune beat writer Sarah McLellan, Gaudreau’s limits as a player contrasted with his relative bargain status encapsulated the floor but also the ceiling between which the Wild operated these last four seasons. And his trade Thursday to Seattle for a fourth-round pick is the sort of move the Wild just couldn’t have dreamed of making for a while now.

Gaudreau in and of himself is a fine player, but he probably played an outsized role here because the Wild couldn’t afford upgrades. There are plenty of other examples of Gaudreau-like Wild players from the last four seasons, and their combined effect was this:

If their low-cost, trusted veterans achieved at or above their expected levels, they would have a good chance to make the playoffs (as they did in three of Gaudreau’s four seasons, years in which he averaged 17 goals).

If the low-cost, trusted veterans achieved below expected levels, they would miss the playoffs (as they did in 2023-24, when Gaudreau slumped to five goals).

Either way, the Wild would not be serious contenders. A lineup of a few standouts but also a disproportionate number of grinders could win 3-2 games in December but would inevitably falter against free-spending teams with more talent in the postseason (as they did in losing in six games in the first round three times since the buyouts hit).

Still, if you are committed to treading water instead of bottoming out, you need players like Gaudreau.

Now? The Wild can afford to let him go. They have almost $18 million in cap space with the buyouts reduced to a pittance and the Gaudreau trade adding $2.1 million more in room.

His tenure provided the perfect bookends to a four-year era.

“The empty cap hits are over, and we get to be involved in bigger things,” Guerin said Thursday. “So, that part is really nice. I can’t promise what the team’s going to look like, but we’re just trying to get better.”

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