RandBall: The Vikings have greatly exceeded expectations. Why were we so wrong about them?

Near the end of Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell’s media availability on Wednesday, I ventured into more of a 30,000-foot view of the team.

My question: There’s a lot of season left, but it’s safe to say that at this point the Vikings have exceeded external expectations. What were those of us who tried to predict this team missing at the start of the year that you maybe liked?

O’Connell could have spiked the football, so to speak, and taken the opportunity to strut around or say “I told you so.”

But I didn’t expect that, nor did he do that. Instead, he gave the sort of nuanced and process-driven answer that has benefitted the Vikings greatly in their approach already this year. I talked about it more detail on Thursday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

“The greatest thing about this league is we get to roll a ball out for four quarters and figure it out together,” O’Connell said, adding that he didn’t read or listen to a lot of preseason predictions. “Sometimes we figure those things out on a little bit different timetable than maybe you guys do. I luckily get the opportunity to have a lot of moments where I get to talk to the team long before the first result, second, third or fourth, whatever it is.

“And I tried to get out in front of this with my confidence, with the team feeling their confidence, and then see if we could trigger that as far as preparation, being totally focused on every day we get to work together and be prepared for when the first time we get to compete guys can ... take that confidence in what we could be and start turning it into a reality.”

Before the year started, ESPN’s Football Power Index predicted the Vikings would win 6.8 games and suggested they had about a 15% chance of making the playoffs. That same model now projects 11.1 wins and an 83.7% chance at the postseason.

Preseason over-under wagering totals fell along those pessimistic lines as well. Seven Star Tribune writers weighed in with preseason record predictions. Five of us (myself included) predicted seven wins or fewer and Andrew Krammer was the most optimistic of all of us with a 9-8 record.

The Vikings have benefitted from some classic definitions of football luck to the point that one metric shows them as the luckiest team in the NFL so far. Opponents have missed three field goals, including two big ones in Green Bay. Opponents have dropped passes and interceptions.

Watching the games, though, it feels more often than not that what they are doing is earned instead of given to them. Their play might have caught us off guard but their wins do not seem like a fluke. They are winning because of several shrewd free agent signings, good situational football and impressive execution in all three phases of the game — factors that O’Connell mentioned as he got into more detail with his answer.

It was hard for us to know they would be this good because they didn’t know they would be this good — even if they had the belief and put in the work to do so.

“It’s not necessarily a surprise to me,” O’Connell said. “It’s just guys taking the confidence of what might be out in front of us and turning it into action and our players deserve 100% of the credit for that. While also, you know, trying to ignore some of maybe those not-so-rosy projections or expectations.”

Here are four more things to know today: