Opinion: The Northstar sputter: How not to run a railroad

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ABOARD NORTHSTAR COMMUTER RAIL, Big Lake to Target Field — With the pandemic causing the worst drop in ridership of any commuter rail operation nationwide and an unsustainable $116 subsidy per rider, the Northstar Line is a failure. The state has no choice but to shutter the service.

That’s the conclusion of Metro Transit, which operates the line and announced its impending closure at a date yet to be determined.

I have written about transportation systems around the country and am enthusiastic about trains and public transit in general. It may be in my blood; I grew up across from the L in Chicago and took my first solo ride at 5 years old. (My mother fully endorsed it, but that was a different time.)

Yet I was resigned to accept the Northstar decision in the face of what looked like insurmountable challenges, including its budget-busting subsidy.

But then I read a May 2025 report from the federal Government Accountability Office, detailing identical challenges affecting commuter rail systems nationwide. It also described what those transit agencies did in response. Though most ridership in most systems remains below pre-pandemic numbers, a handful are thriving — even exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

What did they do to achieve it? There are a host of measures, most notably increasing the frequency of service, including adding train runs beyond traditional commuting times in response to new work-from-home realities. Some systems offered discounts and even temporary free fares to get passengers back on board. The data show these incentives work.

And Metro Transit? It’s taken the opposite approach. The number of daily train trips has been cut, from six a day in each direction to four, all during morning and evening rush hours, and no service at all on weekends. The exception is special train runs for Twins games, which should be moneymakers, hardly necessitating a state subsidy. But Metro Transit says those trains will end, too.

These actions are completely in the wrong direction, but don’t take my word for it. “Cutting service to adapt to reduced ridership introduces the risk of the ‘death spiral’ of transit service,” the unbiased, nonpartisan GAO report states. “In other words, reduced service further reduces ridership, leading to further cuts in service, and eventually repeated reductions in ridership and service.”

The GAO cited as success stories TEXRail in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Miami’s Metrorail, and California’s Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit, all posting the highest post-pandemic numbers. In a news release, TEXRail attributed its success to “many factors, including the safety and reliability of the service, as well as ease of use through simplified fares and newly enhanced schedules,” including an increase in the number of daily trains.

Miami’s Metrorail cited similar initiatives, including off-hour service to “improve riders’ ability to navigate their weekends efficiently … for their tax-free weekend shopping by visiting various shopping plazas serviced by Metrorail.” Fares were waived during the pandemic but have since been brought back.

California’s SMART line noted in a release “the highest month of ridership in its history” in April 2024, with a “remarkable 36% surge in ridership during off-peak hours.” SMART also “reduced fares 40% and allowed free rides for youth and seniors,” and opened two new stations, an agency official added.

While the study notes it did not distinguish between small or large transit systems, the actions taken can be utilized by agencies of various sizes. And none of the measures are in any way trade secrets. It’s head-scratching how Metro Transit could be unaware or dismissive of emergency readjustments that are obviously industry standards.

So what exactly is Metro Transit’s plan? The agency is not saying, except that a decision to discontinue the line has been made and buses will replace the service. Some unused cars may be leased to other systems. But beyond that, there is no timetable and there are no details. Nor is there comment on costs associated with not running the line — such as who will pay for police to patrol the unused stations, which are possible magnets for unhoused people. It’s doubtful that the BNSF freight railroad, which owns the track, would be interested in picking up the tab.

The GAO report is fresh from this spring, meaning its data is valid. It’s not too late for Metro Transit to reverse its counterproductive decisions and follow the blueprint of what other agencies have proven works.

To be certain, the Northstar line does have the burden of having been hamstrung from its beginning in 2009, when the route opened with its termination at Big Lake instead of the more populous St. Cloud. That terminus has remained elusive, and if Metro Transit needs proof of the adage “if you build it, they will come,” they could just ask regular commuter Sue Everroad.

“We moved out here a year ago,” she said, referring to Big Lake. “One of the reasons we moved here was the train.” Everroad said she previously got on at the Coon Rapids stop and has used the line since it opened.

But even with the Northstar’s existing route, the GAO report shows that cutting back in response to adversity is no way to run a railroad — unless you want to run it into the ground. Metro Transit officials still have the opportunity to reverse that course. If they’re at all serious about their mission, they must.

Robin Washington is a producer-host for Wisconsin Public Radio and a former editor in chief of the Duluth News Tribune. He lives in Duluth and St. Paul and can be reached at robin@robinwashington.com.