Neal: With CFP expansion, P.J. Fleck and the Gophers should have loftier goals

If the 12-team College Football Playoff would have been in existence in 2019, the Gophers would have had a case to be in the bracket.

That team was 10-1 before dropping its final regular-season game to Wisconsin. That would not have helped their causes, but Gophers coach P.J. Fleck would have had a platform to stump for his squad in ways only he can stump.

The Gophers beat up Bo Nix — yes, the current NFL rookie quarterback — and the Auburn Tigers in the Outback Bowl that year to finish 11-2. It was by far Fleck’s best season here, and his only double-digit victory season in eight seasons on the job.

So, as we reach the meaty part of the bowl schedule and the CFP, it’s time to talk about expectations. This is about how the expansion of college football’s playoff should put heat on Fleck, whose Gophers face Virginia Tech on Friday in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte, N.C.

With the 12-team playoff looming, it made the final two weeks of the regular season more meaningful. Syracuse beating Miami (Fla.) and Georgia rallying to beat Georgia Tech in six overtimes to avoid an upset was must-see sports viewing. Now the race to see who reaches the title game on Jan. 20 is on.

With more teams having a chance under the expanded playoff format, there’s no reason why the Gophers can’t be one of them every now and then.

The fact that more teams can argue to be part of this bigger club is good for college football. The CFP might expand to 14 teams in 2026. If that happens, a Power Four school can be in the mix with 10 victories. Once it reaches 14, a 16-team postseason won’t be far away.

There will be controversies, which we have learned from the NCAA hoops committee through the years. Old Miss coach Lane Kiffin grumbled on social media after Indiana and Southern Methodist were trounced in the first round. Well Lane, if you had not lost to 4-8 Kentucky at home maybe you would have been in the field.

That brings us back to Fleck, with his one double-digit victory season. Can’t you just get the Gophers close enough to be snubbed once in a while?

I’m not expecting at least 10 victories every season. This isn’t Louisiana State. Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State routinely lead the Big Ten in recruiting. Oregon and Southern California, known for their strong classes, are now also part of the conference.

The Gophers have challenges. They have to coach up their three-star recruits and portal the right players to the Twin Cities to be successful. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti did it. In his first season, he led the Hoosiers to an 11-1 regular-season record and a CFP berth. And he might not have a player selected in the NFL draft until the fourth round. The Hoosiers had a favorable schedule — playing five home conference games to four road games, with seven games against teams that finished below .500 in the Big Ten — but they took advantage of it.

It can be done, and especially when the schedule breaks your way. We should expect Fleck to craft a 10-win season every few years, not once in eight. And there have been four seasons in which he has won seven or fewer games. That’s not counting the COVID-19 season of 2020. That is counting this season, which the Gophers could finish at 8-5 if they defeat the Hokies on Friday and force Fleck to take a mayonnaise bath. It would be a two-win improvement over 2023 but still a year in which Fleck’s group fell short.

The Gophers’ 2024 season included a loss to North Carolina, which gave up 70 points to James Madison three weeks later; another loss to Iowa; and a loss at Rutgers in the Athan Kaliakmanis reunion game. Their plucky road win at Illinois ended up their best of the season. Fleck can point to how many one-score games they were in — so can many coaches — but it comes down to what side you end up on. And Fleck lost four of those games.

There have been too many mediocre seasons under Fleck. There’s the 34-36 conference record. There’s his 1-7 record against Iowa.

This matters more now as college football no longer requires near perfection to reach the tournament. Entering the final week with 10 wins gets you in the conversation.

Gophers fans should be watching playoff games this week wondering what it will take to join the party.

There is an expanded pathway to college football’s postseason. Fleck’s future should depend on him finding it.