Vikings-Titans prediction: Minnesota defense takes aim at another young quarterback

The Vikings won the first game of their three-week road trip (albeit in unseemly fashion) last week in Jacksonville. The middle game of the trip is against the Titans, another two-win team with a young quarterback. This time, it’ll be Will Levis, whom the Vikings passed on in the first round last year before the Titans took him 33rd overall.

Here’s a look at the Vikings-Titans matchup on Sunday:

Vikings try to get offense back on track: Even though they posted 402 yards and held the ball for more than 42 minutes in Jacksonville, the Vikings had to squeak by the Jaguars after three Sam Darnold interceptions and three other drives that fizzled in the red zone. They talked this week about Darnold “trusting what’s gotten him to this point,” and the quarterback will try to cut down on the mistakes that cost the Vikings chances to put Jacksonville away earlier.

Safety shells likely coming for Jefferson again: The Titans play quarters coverage 24.8% of the time (less than only the Vikings and the Chargers, according to data from Field Vision Sports), and it’s possible they’ll copy the approach used by the Jaguars and other teams against Justin Jefferson, keeping a shell over the top of the Vikings’ offense to keep Jefferson from beating them downfield. The receiver said Thursday he‘s no longer surprised by the approach, adding, “We can’t get greedy and try to force passes into those shell coverages.” Four of Darnold’s five interceptions in the past two weeks have been on throws targeted for Jefferson, and the Titans will likely make it their chief aim to keep Jefferson from beating them on Sunday. L’Jarius Sneed, the grabby Titans cornerback who faced Jefferson with Kansas City last year, has been out with a quadriceps injury.

Simmons presents a challenge in the middle: Titans defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons was a force in two days of joint practices with the Vikings last year in Eagan, when he spent plenty of time in the Vikings’ backfield before a preseason game between the two teams last August. He’ll create another difficult matchup for the middle of the Vikings’ line, playing right end in the Titans’ base sets and moving to defensive tackle in their nickel package.

Defense gets its shot at Levis: Though the Vikings were looking at quarterbacks before the 2023 draft, sources said at the time they weren’t interested in Levis with the 23rd overall pick. He had his best game of the season last week against the Chargers, completing 18 of his 23 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s been intercepted on 4.7% of his passes and sacked on 12.94% of his dropbacks (including seven times last week against the Chargers). The Vikings limited Mac Jones to 111 passing yards last week; they could be in for another strong day against Levis.

Titans’ turnovers could turn the game: Tennessee has turned the ball over 17 times this year, while taking it away just six times. In addition to throwing 11 interceptions between them, Levis and Mason Rudolph have fumbled eight times to go with seven from Titans receivers, with Tennessee losing six of them. The Vikings have likely highlighted those numbers to players this week; expect them to go after opportunities to strip the ball when they have them.

The Titans’ defense has played better than its points allowed numbers would suggest, and it could keep things tight for a while by forcing the Vikings to settle for short completions like they had to do last week. Given how difficult young quarterbacks have found it to face this defense, though, it’s hard to see Levis turning out to be the one with the answer, especially as he plays behind an overmatched offensive line that could be without right tackle Leroy Watson. The Vikings’ defense will make the difference in this one, as it did in Jacksonville last week, and the team will get to 8-2. Vikings 24, Titans 10

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