Analysis: Patience, precision will be key to getting Vikings QB Sam Darnold back on track

On the other side of one of the more unusual victories in their history, the Vikings will return to work this week with a pair of prominent objectives on their offensive to-do list: Refine the ways they punish teams for covering Justin Jefferson the way the Jaguars did on Sunday, and refresh the way Sam Darnold plays when he’s throwing the ball.

Despite outgaining the Jaguars by 259 yards, the Vikings beat Jacksonville by only five points, making their 12-7 victory the fifth in franchise history during which they won by seven points or fewer despite outgaining their opponent by 250 yards or more. They had five drives of 50 yards or more, four drives of at least 12 plays; they held the ball for 42 minutes 19 seconds, longer than any team in the NFL this year. But the game remained in doubt after Darnold’s first three-interception game of the year, against a Jaguars team that doggedly stuck to a familiar strategy for containing Jefferson.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville played split-safety coverage, with two safeties playing deep, on 92.9% of their defensive snaps, the highest rate of any team in the league since the NFL’s data service began tracking such things in 2018. It’s become a popular strategy to limit explosive passing attacks, and the Vikings have seen plenty of it from teams looking to limit Jefferson. The Jaguars were more committed to it than any opponent in the receiver’s five-year career.

“I think we’ve been through a couple games like that before, where there’s trying to have a coverage plan to Justin, and [then] there’s an entire aspect of team defense against Justin,” coach Kevin O’Connell said. “Give them credit: They were willing to sacrifice time of possession, the run game, tight ends working the middle of the field, things like that. And if we don’t turn the ball over, maybe they look back on that as, ‘Was that really the best way to go about it?’ There might have been maybe one pressure, but outside of that it was very, very much, ‘We’re going to play this game the way we decided to play it and keep it close,’ which they did because we made some mistakes.”

Specifically, the Jaguars kept the game close because all three of Darnold’s interceptions came deep in Jacksonville territory, including one in the end zone and one at the goal line. All three interceptions were on throws for Jefferson, and Darnold had a fourth interception (on a throw to Jordan Addison) overturned because of offsetting penalties. Darnold is now tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with 10; he’s thrown five of them in the Vikings’ past two games.

O’Connell stresses the connection between footwork and vision to his quarterbacks, and said there are some things with Darnold that “as you get into the meat of the season, you’ve got to make sure you’re on top of every little detail.” The Vikings could have done some things better around him on passing plays, the coach said, while pointing out plays such as a 28-yard completion to Josh Oliver and a 21-yarder to Addison, as well as a 26-yard catch-and-run to T.J. Hockenson against a Jaguars defense committed to keeping two safeties deep.

“We can either be more accurate to the sideline on some throws or play with a little bit more timing,” O’Connell said. “Having our feet set to the right areas of the field will eliminate unneeded wasted movement [that’s] maybe making us late at times. But all of [those] are really good things to watch on a tape after you’ve won a football game, and now you can really coach those things hard. … Sam will be right back to where we need him to be, which has been leading this team for seven wins this year.”

Split-safety coverage tends to test an offense’s ability to be patient with short gains; O’Connell said the Vikings’ sustained drives Sunday were evidence of their ability to do that. “But it was about the red zone,” he said. “It was about detail to finish drives and ultimately try to punch the ball in the end zone a couple of times there, that game looks awfully different.”

Darnold targeted Jefferson nine times Sunday, completing five passes to him for 48 yards. Darnold said his conversations with Jefferson are to help them both keep “a consistent mindset” even in games where there aren’t many downfield opportunities. O’Connell said Monday he didn’t sense any frustration from the receiver about how the Jaguars’ coverage affected him.

“He’s such a heady, smart player; he understands what’s happening,” O’Connell said. “You can always tell by the way he comes out of a cut and he’s double-teamed or he had a guy bumping him and a safety over the top and he looks over his left shoulder and sees Josh Oliver running down the middle of the field or T.J. [Hockenson] winning on a cut over the middle, and he’s excited as anybody.”

The Vikings can lure defenses out of those looks by getting a lead and running the ball, as they did early in the year. For that to happen, they’ll have to turn field-goal drives into touchdowns and eliminate the turnovers that kept the Jaguars game closer than many metrics would indicate it should have been.

After an unusual win, the Vikings have plenty to fix.

“Even talking to [Darnold] on the flight home, spending some time talking to him, he’s in a great headspace,” O’Connell said. “He’s ready to go to work.”

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