Analysis: Minnesota United is off to its best start, and the numbers say it’s no fluke

In the middle of May last year, as Minnesota United climbed up the MLS standings, then-new manager Eric Ramsay said he was all about day-by-day process, not results. “I don’t think it’s necessary to talk about winning,” he said back then.

Fast-forward a year, and Ramsay has learned: When it comes to motivating his team, he might as well talk about the standings.

“I think it can be a really motivating factor for this group,” he said. “I sort of find that we can get a response from the group talking about chunks of games, talking about fighting for our position in the table, to an extent. It’s almost like the elephant in the room that you might as well bring front and center.”

Fans can say it, then, without worrying that the coach will hear them: at the halfway point of the year, the Loons are tied on points for the third spot in the league-wide standings. It qualifies as rarefied air for a team that’s seemingly been mired, permanently, in mid-table.

And as far as chunks of the schedule, at the halfway point, Minnesota is in the best shape it’s ever been at this point. The Loons’ 30 points are the most they’ve earned in MLS over the first 17 games of a season.

It puts Minnesota on pace to break the team’s single-season points record (53, set back in 2019) and finish higher in the overall standings than they ever have (seventh, also in 2019, is their high-water mark.)

And yet, Minnesota has been left ruing some missed opportunities. The Loons earned only draws at home with three teams currently outside the playoff picture in the West; FC Dallas, Austin FC, and the historically-hapless LA Galaxy have all walked away from Allianz Field with a point this year.

Add in a blown 3-0 lead on the road against Sporting Kansas City, a team that was about to break records for the league’s longest losing streak, and the Loons know that success has come with missed opportunities for more.

Even so, the underlying numbers — especially expected goals — point to a team that deserves its place in the standings. The Loons are built on defense, playing a back five and lining up three or four players in midfield when they don’t have the ball, all in the name of forcing teams to play around the margins of the dangerous areas in the center of the field.

It’s working; according to FBRef.com, the Loons have allowed fewer expected goals per game than any other team in the league.

Famously, the team is also less concerned with ball possession than any other team in MLS. The Loons had just over 38% possession this year, off the charts at the bottom of the 30-team league; second-to-last St. Louis is at almost 44%. If there’s one thing that defines the national narrative about the Loons, it’s that Minnesota doesn’t want the ball.

Of course, a team needs the ball to take a shot, so you’d expect that the Loons are also off the charts at the bottom of the offensive scale — and that’s where you’d be wrong.

Minnesota is 12th in the league on shots attempted, and seventh in shots on target. They’re also 12th in non-penalty expected goals.

Ramsay has explained a hundred times that he doesn’t care about possession, and this is why: His team is creating offense without giving up anything on defense. If that means not holding the ball for minutes at a time, passing aimlessly between defenders on the halfway line of the field and padding the possession stats, so be it.

When that breaks down, it can be ugly. Sometimes the Loons seem to forget they’re allowed to hold onto the ball, and they attempt hopeless long passes forward instead of dribbling and letting other players get into the play.

Minnesota can look like a basketball squad that’s firing three-pointers in transition and missing all of them; last week’s 0-0 draw with Vancouver, when the Loons won zero corner kicks and had only one low-quality shot on goal, was an example.

The flip side, though, is that their defense means they’re always in the game. Minnesota has gone scoreless in five games this year but lost only two of those — like that scoreless draw with Vancouver, the league’s best team. Even when things go wrong on offense, the Loons have a chance for a point — even on the road against a top team.

The next chunk of the Loons season is a familiar one from 2024. Minnesota will be missing four regular starters during the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Dayne St. Clair, Tani Oluwaseyi, Joseph Rosales, and Carlos Harvey will miss at least two, likely three, and possibly as many as four games between June 14 and July 4, testing the team’s depth. With Minnesota still in the U.S. Open Cup, and playing in the Leagues Cup in late July and early August, it won’t be a restful second half.

The Loons, though, have a clear identity to carry them, one that’s been working pretty well so far in 2025. If they can weather the storm of absences and other inevitable setbacks, their first half has set them up for the potential of the best season in team history.