100 days in 10 charts: Minnesota’s economy so far under Trump

Economic uncertainty has hung over the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term.

The largest tariffs in a century have wreaked havoc on the markets and are expected to raise inflation and slow growth. Add in the unprecedented layoffs of thousands of federal workers, and the robust U.S. jobs market could falter.

Because economic data typically runs at least a month behind, some of these impacts have yet to show up in the numbers.

But economists have upped the odds of a recession, and many consumers and businesses are already pulling back on spending — which could cause a recession on its own.

Trump’s economic platform — which included pledging to lower the cost of consumer goods like groceries starting on “day one” — was attractive to voters. The president and White House officials have said some economic pain, including a recession, might be necessary in order to reshape the U.S. economy.

Here are 10 charts showing what this all has meant for Minnesota’s state and regional economies since Inauguration Day.

Inflation, or the change in prices through time, jumped to a 40-year high of about 9% in June 2022. Economists attributed the spike to offshoots of the COVID-19 pandemic, including supply chain disruptions and government stimulus spending.

To slow the economy and push inflation back toward its 2% goal, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March 2022. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures a “market basket” of goods and services each month, neared that target in September, and the Fed started cutting rates in response.

After ticking up to 3% in January, the CPI has fallen back down to a little more than 2%.

Interest rate hikes make it more expensive for people and businesses to borrow and spend money, which in turn can lead to job cuts and higher unemployment.

Until recently, consumer spending had stayed unexpectedly strong in the face of higher rates. The state and national unemployment rates have held fairly steady for the past few years, though the data does not yet show recent federal layoffs.

Most of Minnesota’s largest publicly traded companies took a hit in early April after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs that sent global markets tumbling.

The markets have whipsawed since: up after Trump announced a 90-day pause on most new tariffs; down as he attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell; up again thanks to optimism for a possible deal with China.

The benchmark S&P 500 has avoided bear market territory but has fallen about 8% since Trump’s inauguration.

Since Trump’s inauguration, Minnesota businesses have reported increasingly pessimistic outlooks, although negative sentiments were higher in summer 2024, according to the every-other-week U.S. Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey.

Approximately 200,000 businesses across the country answer the survey’s questions every two weeks. It asks, “Overall, how would you describe this business’s current performance?” and “Six months from now, how do you think you will describe this business’s performance?”

Optimistic responses from Minnesota businesses to both questions have largely decreased so far in 2025. Small Minnesota companies have reported climbing costs as they face increased shipment costs due to tariffs.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is considered the gold standard for gauging how Americans feel about the economy.

A monthly survey asks participants about their financial situations and future expectations for themselves and the country as a whole. The topline index measures consumer confidence on a 100-point scale.

Results from surveys like this one aren’t “hard data” like inflation or unemployment and don’t generally influence monetary policy. But they can be an early warning sign.

There’s a chicken-and-egg conundrum when consumers think a recession is coming: If people stop spending money because they’re anxious about where the economy is headed — regardless of what’s actually happening — businesses do worse, and the economy slows down, sometimes to the point of recession.

Speaking of the chicken and the egg, consumers have faced upcharges at restaurants and empty grocery store fridges as an infection has ripped through chicken farms and threatened the kitchen staple.

Egg prices are higher than ever, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data stretching back to the 1940s. The climbing prices have outpaced inflation and left some looking for breakfast alternatives.

Bird flu, fatal for chickens, is largely to blame for the rocketing prices. The Trump administration has launched a five-pronged plan to respond to the virus, including funds supporting biosecurity measures for egg-laying chicken farms as well as research and development of vaccines for egg-laying chickens.

Minnesota, like much of the Midwest, relies on crude oil from Canadian tar sands.

Tariffs are already affecting the prices Minnesotans pay at the pump, rising 5% since import taxes on Canada went into effect in March.

Prices typically rise as travel heats up in the summer months, and Minnesota could see an additional hike this summer because the state opted into year-round ethanol blends.

Foot traffic data for everyday retailers such as dollar stores, grocery stores and superstores reveals consumers are slowing down their rush to shop.

Location analytics platform Placer.ai uses foot traffic data collected from mobile devices to generate metrics tracking how many people visit a business.

Visits to superstores have decreased nearly every week this year in Minnesota. At discount stores and grocery stores, foot traffic has been growing, but more slowly than last year.

Tariffs threaten to further stretch many retailers. Minneapolis-based Target imports about 50% of its merchandise, an executive said on a recent call with investors. Retailers like these are some of the most popular among U.S. shoppers.

The spring house hunt is on in the Twin Cities, with listings and prices warming up as usual with the weather. But the predictable seasonal trend isn’t the only factor weighing on the residential real estate market.

Homebuyers have encountered a roller-coaster market since 2020, with largely increasing prices as well as a stalemate between buyers and sellers as demand outstripped supply in some areas. Interest rates, now higher than during the early days of the pandemic, leave would-be sellers wary to list their home and buy new ones because they’ll lose the low rate they locked in when buying or refinancing a home during the pandemic.

The St. Paul Area Association of Realtors publishes monthly Twin Cities housing statistics, which reveal median sales prices in the Twin Cities are unrelenting, increasing to $380,000 in March 2024 from $367,000 the prior year. Listings have also ticked up by more than 600 homes during the same period.

Mortgage rates trended down during the first three months of the year, providing buyers some relief. But following the breakout of the global trade war in February, these important rates have increased again.

After jumping during the early years of the pandemic, median rent has since represented one of the most stable expenses Americans face.

Since 2022, median average rent for units in multifamily buildings has increased less than $100 in the United States and Minnesota, according to data from Apartment.com owner CoStar. Rent in the North Star State trails the national median by $320 per month.

Some economists worry tariffs on building materials, though, could cut supply short and trigger an increase in prices for renters. Construction in the Twin Cities was already set to plummet before the change in administrations.