How changing landscape of college football manifests in the NFL draft

During an appearance on Omaha Productions’ “This is Football” at the annual NFL owners meetings in late March, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell alluded to mixed thoughts about some weighty topics in the football world.

“I think there’s a whole other conversation to be had about the young player nowadays looking for the easy button in the room and that’s more of an NIL, transfer portal — we won’t go there today," O’Connell said while answering a question about the secret to quarterback development.

Changes within college football are increasingly affecting the NFL, most obviously during draft season when a new, young batch of prospects with collegiate experiences increasingly different from the 30-year-old veterans they’ll soon call their teammates takes the direct spotlight for a month.

The draft begins Thursday night in Green Bay, Wis. Here’s a look at some of the numbers that show where some of the biggest changes in college football manifest, for good, bad or indifferent, at the NFL level.

In 2020, quarterback Joe Burrow was drafted No. 1 overall by the Bengals.

He was coming off a championship-winning season at LSU in his second year starting under center for the Tigers. Burrow transferred as a graduate student from Ohio State after only 11 game appearances in two seasons there.

Since Burrow’s drafting — 18 months after the NCAA enacted the transfer portal in 2018 — 23 players with at least one transfer during their collegiate career, including from a junior college to a Division I program, have been selected in the first round.

Eighteen of those players transferred from one Power Five school to another.

“I feel like some [teams] had questions about [transferring], but it’s not really a big deal,” said Oregon edge rusher Jordan Burch at the NFL scouting combine in late February. “I think a lot of people do it now, so it’s kind of normal.”

Burch transferred to Oregon from South Carolina during the winter transfer portal window following the 2022 season.

He’s No. 63 on The Athletic’s consensus big board, which compiles rankings from a variety of NFL analysts.

The April 4 edition of the 100-prospect big board includes 33 prospects who transferred at least once in their collegiate careers.

Among them are Miami quarterback Cam Ward and Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, who are both in the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Ward is a two-time transfer. He spent two seasons apiece at Incarnate Word and Washington State before choosing to close his collegiate career with the Hurricanes.

Hunter followed his NFL Hall of Fame coach Deion Sanders from Jackson State to Colorado. Sanders’ son, quarterback Shedeur Sanders, is also a potential first-round pick.

Derrick Harmon, the Oregon defensive tackle whom the Vikings met with at the NFL scouting combine and could be a candidate for their No. 24 overall pick, is a transfer. He spent three seasons at Michigan State before closing his career with the Ducks.

Other potential first-rounders who are transfers include Marshall edge rusher Mike Green (Virginia), Ole Miss interior defensive lineman Walter Nolen (Texas A&M) and Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss).

The increased use of the transfer portal also means fewer current FCS prospects are being looked at in more publicized scouting sessions, at least.

Some inflated lists will say 13 FCS prospects attended this year’s scouting combine, but they count players such as Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer, who started his career at New Hampshire and then transferred.

Only seven of those prospects were still at FCS schools when their collegiate careers ended.

One is North Dakota State offensive lineman Grey Zabel, a likely first-round pick and another potential target for the Vikings.

Zabel played over 3,000 snaps for the Bison over five seasons. He was on the field for more than 1,000 between offense and special teams each of his final two seasons.

Despite the quantity of snaps, Zabel still earned average grades above 90% for overall offense and pass blocking from Pro Football Focus. His run blocking grade was an 86.4%.

Why didn’t he transfer up? Aren’t there questions about the level of competition he played against?

“I’ve heard that a lot throughout this process,” Zabel said at the combine. “But going down to the Senior Bowl and competing well against top talent just goes to show that football is football. Everyone puts on the shoulder pads the same way. Everyone bleeds red.

“If you’re a good football player, teams are going to find you, no matter where you played.”

Before the implementation of the transfer portal, an average 20.5 FCS players were invited to the combine between 2016 and 2021, according to league data shared with ESPN. That average has dropped to below 15 since 2022.

Only one HBCU (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) player was among the seven FCS prospects invited to the combine this year: Alabama A&M offensive tackle Carson Vinson.

Prospects from even smaller schools — D-II and D-III level — are now essentially gone from the combine.

Last year, the difference in guaranteed money for a first-round draft selection vs. a seventh-round one was $19.9 million, according to NFL Operations. Between the first and second rounds, guaranteed money dropped by $14.2 million.

A seventh-round pick was guaranteed only $97,374.

That’s $42,626 less than the expected annual compensation for starting Power Four tight ends, according to data from Opendorse collected by The New York Times in August 2024.

The legalization of NIL payments by the NCAA in July 2021 has led to a decrease in early entrants in the NFL draft.

“In some cases, it’s allowed the player to stay in college longer, or at least enticed them to stay in longer,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said at the combine.

In only three years, the number of early draft entrees has been chopped in half, down from 128 in 2021 to 100 in 2022, 84 in 2023 and 58 in 2024.

It rebounded slightly this year to 70, but after six consecutive draft cycles (2016-22) with over 100 early entrants, it’s still representative of a shift away.