Analysis: This Gold Cup will be a proving ground for the slumping Americans

Even semi-seasoned soccer fans might look at the CONCACAF Gold Cup, which kicks off Saturday night, and think, “OK, which international tournament is this, again?”

To recap: This is the continental championship for North America, Central America and the Caribbean. It’s held every other year, and this year includes 15 teams from CONCACAF plus — for reasons that are simultaneously inexplicable and obvious — Saudi Arabia.

So this is the USA-hosted tournament that’s not the World Cup (that’s next year).

The Gold Cup is also the only tournament with games in Minnesota. Two of the four quarterfinals will be at U.S. Bank Stadium on June 29. The federation won’t decide which teams are involved until after the group stage.

Since the other two quarterfinals are in Arizona, it’s reasonable to conclude that likely knockout-round qualifier Mexico wouldn’t play in Minnesota. Assuming the United States makes the quarterfinals and doesn’t have to play Mexico, it would make sense that the Twin Cities could see a home game for the Americans.

A few months ago, the “if the United States qualifies” caveat would not have seemed quite so necessary. The national team has lost four consecutive matches, all at home, in one embarrassing fashion or another. The latest, a 4-0 loss to Switzerland on Tuesday in Nashville, saw the Americans give up four goals in the first 40 minutes — the first time they had ever done that in a home match.

Mauricio Pochettino was supposed to be the big-name, big-game coach that was prepping the national team for a triumphant run to a home World Cup next summer. Instead, he is facing questions about his job, and now he is attacking this tournament without most of his biggest-name players who are either playing in the Club World Cup, injured or taking the summer off due to general exhaustion.

The Americans should be the favorites in Group D; the other teams are Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago and Saudi Arabia. But while the Saudis don’t have a storied pedigree, they did beat Argentina at the last World Cup. Given how the USMNT is playing, it might not be a surprise to see Saudi Arabia win the group.

Mexico, meanwhile, is still trying to get back to its old status as the biggest heavyweight on the continent. Unless something extremely unexpected goes wrong, Mexico will win a Group A that also includes Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Suriname, but “El Tri” didn’t get out of its group at either the 2022 World Cup or the 2024 Copa América. Mexico responded, in classic fashion, by firing the coach and hiring Javier Aguirre back for a third stint in charge. He has already lifted one trophy, in the Nations League in March; another would help convince the Mexican federation that it has the right man (again) to right the ship.

For Canada, the challenge is to finally win something, anything at all. The Canadians have been the most stable team in the region for several years, but we’re still talking about a country that hasn’t won the Gold Cup in a quarter-century, and it goes into next summer’s World Cup still seeking the country’s first-ever victory — or draw — at the world’s premier men’s soccer event.

The Canucks are the second team of many Minnesota United fans, thanks to the presence of the Loons’ Dayne St. Clair and Tani Oluwaseyi on the Canadian roster. They are the favorites to win Group B, which also includes Curacao, El Salvador and Honduras.

Panama, with Loons defender Carlos Harvey, might be the tournament’s dark horse, and is the best team in Group C, with the others being Guadeloupe, Guatemala and Jamaica. The Panamanians have developed a reputation as the United States’ nemesis, having beaten the Americans in three tournaments in a row — but they would have to make it at least to the semifinals to do so again.

The rest of the tournament’s teams would probably be pleased with a berth in the quarterfinals, and a chance to knock off one of the region’s giants. And so, whether heavyweight or flyweight, this is a tournament that really matters to every participant. And that’s not something you can say about every United States-hosted tournament this June.