A US-led effort to end the war in Ukraine looks favorable to Russia, but mixed signals emerge

TALLINN, Estonia — The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House.

What's emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender territory and forego NATO membership. What's more, he has engaged in a rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months ago.

More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals — social media posts that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along — and a deal has yet to materialize.

While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favor, no proposals that were put forth have been cemented.

And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia.

Zelenskyy said Thursday the deal was the first result of his ''truly historic'' meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis.

Dialogue and aligned vision

One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine — and not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank.

Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the vast agenda of the ''two superpowers.'' Trump and Putin talked in March about Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries.

Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building ''a new structure of the world'' together.

In this sense, ''Putin already got a part of what he sought'' — the optics of Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said.

Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, ''will stay with Russia,'' and outlines of a peace proposal his team reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO.

All of these reflect Moscow's long-held positions, and Trump's echoing of them suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin's.

Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its ''big business opportunities," said Sam Greene of King's College London.

''Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No,'' Greene adds.

So far, it's only talk

But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a possible settlement still very much ''in the air,'' says Sergey Radchenko, a historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement.

Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers -– something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia publicly rejects as a nonstarter.

Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to ''demilitarize,'' or significantly reduce its armed force.

Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself.

''If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them to accept this sort of agreement,'' he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from Ukraine by Russia was ''imperative'' for a peace deal.

Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as violating international law.

What if the US walks away?

Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep making gains on the battlefield.

Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon.

Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at ''manipulation'' to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin immediately and last longer.

Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors coming back, "and there may be a price to be paid'' for pulling out the rug from under that.

The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort.

''When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting Ukraine?'' Greene said.

Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the U.S. stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, either.

''I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this out,'' he said.

And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal "signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.''

A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid.

If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, ''this will amount to a major breakthrough'' for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says.

That would be an uphill battle for Trump as ''there's a lot of congressional sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine,'' Greene notes.