Why Netanyahu's political future is as fragile as the ceasefire

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be flying high.

Israel's enemies across the region have been badly weakened during 15 months of war. Israeli hostages have begun to come home from captivity in Gaza, and Netanyahu's good friend, Donald Trump, is back in the White House.

But Netanyahu may have little time to enjoy his improving fortunes.

His hard-line coalition partners have threatened to topple the government if he does not resume Israel's war in Gaza when a six-week ceasefire with Hamas expires. That could leave Netanyahu torn between his erstwhile allies at home and a U.S. president who says he wants to end the region's wars.

Here's a closer look at Netanyahu's conundrum, and how Trump could determine his fate.

War gains

After the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack that triggered the war, Netanyahu's popularity plunged. Israel's security and intelligence services had failed to prevent the deadliest attack in its 75-year history and the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Hamas was holding scores of hostages in Gaza and the nation was grieving.

But Netanyahu regained his footing and now boasts of military successes across the region.

Israeli forces inflicted heavy losses on Hamas in a 15-month offensive that also has killed tens of thousands of people, including entire families, caused widespread damage and displaced 90% of the population. It will take Gaza years to recover.

At the same time, Israel responded to rocket fire from Hezbollah militants with an air and ground offensive that badly weakened the Lebanese group.

The tough blow to Hezbollah, which included a complex operation to explode pagers and walkie-talkies, appears to have contributed to the downfall of President Bashar Assad in neighboring Syria – one of Hezbollah's closest allies and its main conduit for arms. Iran, the main patron of Hezbollah and Assad, has watched its regional sphere of influence weaken, while Israeli airstrikes have reportedly taken out the country's air defenses and other sensitive targets.

Trump's return to the White House brings the likelihood of even tougher pressure on Iran, along with renewed efforts to deliver a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, a rival of Iran and the Arab world's richest and most powerful country.

As a result, many Israelis, including Netanyahu, consider the country to be in a much stronger strategic position than at the outset of the war, albeit at a heavy price.

"We have made it clear to our enemies and to the entire world, that when the people of Israel stand together, there is no force that can break us,'' Netanyahu said on the eve of the ceasefire this week.

The political battlefield

Just as Netanyahu could be benefiting from Israel's battlefield gains, he finds himself fighting for political survival.

Throughout the war, Netanyahu promised a ''total victory'' against Hamas — destroying the group's governing and military capabilities and bringing home all of the hostages remaining in Gaza.

The ceasefire falls short of these goals. Over six weeks, Israel is set to bring home just one-third of the more than 90 remaining hostages. The fate of the others remains unclear.

The first hostage release illustrated how elusive total victory will be. Moments after the ceasefire took effect, armed Hamas men came out of hiding and were back in the streets. Masked militants escorted the Red Cross vehicles carrying three released hostages, and the Hamas-run government says it is protecting the delivery of international humanitarian aid.

Israel also agreed to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including dozens involved in deadly attacks on Israelis, angering Netanyahu's hard-line base.

The terms of the deal led one hard-line politician, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to pull his party out of Netanyahu's coalition, leaving the prime minister with a narrow majority in parliament.

On Monday, a second hard-liner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, vowed to follow suit if Netanyahu doesn't resume the war when the 42-day truce expires in early March. Smotrich's departure from the government would rob Netanyahu of his parliamentary majority, almost certainly triggering new elections.

''If, God forbid, the war is not resumed, I will bring the government down,'' Smotrich told reporters.

Caught between hard-liners and hostages

Netanyahu has vowed to renew the war if Hamas doesn't meet his demands in negotiations over the second phase of the ceasefire, which aims to end the war. Talks are set to begin in less than two weeks.

''If we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force,'' Netanyahu said.

But doing so may not be so easy. The emotional scenes of the three young women freed by Hamas reuniting with their families has captured the nation's attention. Halting this process without the full return of hostages would be difficult in a country where their families have widespread sympathy. The public – and the army – are tired after 15 months of fighting and a steady stream of soldiers dying in action.

The battlefield in Gaza also is changing. The first phase of the ceasefire allows Gaza's nearly 2 million displaced people to leave crowded tent camps and return to what remains of their homes. This will allow Hamas to regroup in the midst of masses of civilians.

Israel, and Netanyahu himself, already are accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity at the world's top courts over the civilian toll in Gaza, making resuming a military offensive especially challenging.

The Trump effect

With the clock ticking on Netanyahu's fate, Trump could be a deciding factor.

Even before taking office, Trump pressed Netanyahu to reach the ceasefire deal, and the involvement of his new Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, appears to have been critical in wrapping up the agreement.

On the first day of Trump's second administration, he gave mixed signals of what may lie ahead.

In his inaugural speech, he described himself as ''a peacemaker and a unifier.'' But later he said he was not confident the ceasefire will hold.

''That's not our war. It's their war,'' he said.

After angering Trump four years ago by congratulating Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory, Netanyahu is working hard to line up Trump's support.

He was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump after his swearing-in. In an effusive message, he thanked Trump for his help in freeing hostages and said he looked forward to working together to destroy Hamas.

''I am sure, Mr. President, that under your leadership, the best days of our alliance are yet to come,'' he said.

But their visions may not be the same.

Speaking to Fox News this week, Witkoff said that Trump wants the first phase of the ceasefire to succeed for the sides to continue to phase 2 talks. ''That is his directive, and that's what we're going to do,'' he said.