RandBall: Sam Darnold’s clunker vs. the Lions has shaken prognosticators' faith in Vikings

The Vikings opened this season predicted by both data and actual humans to finish with around seven victories. Even the more optimistic prognosticators looked at their roster and figured a 10-win year was about the ceiling of this team.

Instead, they went 14-3 and had a chance to claim the home-field advantage in the NFC. Instead, of course, they lost 31-9 to the Lions on Sunday.

But still: They doubled their expected win total and passed the eye test at many critical moments.

Their reward: the No. 5 seed, a relocated playoff game against a playoff-tested and improving Rams team — and a fresh set of national media skeptics who think their season will end Monday.

Taking a look at wild-card weekend predictions from national outlets reveals more picks for the Rams than the Vikings, and perhaps most notably a set of prognosticators who watched Sam Darnold’s clunker against Detroit in prime time and are dubious of how he will perform against the Rams. Here are a few of those picks:

ESPN: Bill Barnwell was unsparing in his assessment of the Vikings’ loss to the Lions. He wrote: “Any quarterback can miss a throw or two, but I’m not sure anybody has left more big plays and potential touchdowns on the field with missed throws in a single game this season than Darnold did last week.” He picked the Rams to win rather comfortably, 27-17.

Yahoo: Four out of five writers picked the Rams over the Vikings.

NFL.com: While noting it was the hardest game of the weekend to pick, three of five writers took the Rams over the Vikings.

Sporting News: Bill Bender sees it as a close game, but he takes the Rams 28-27.

Here is what I would say about all this: The Rams are not a preferred matchup for the Vikings. A few weeks back, Ben Goessling and I broke down opponents the Vikings would or would not want to face in the opening round, and the Rams — one of just two teams to beat the Vikings all season — were definitely in the “don’t want” category.

But the Vikings have been resilient, and they are a legitimately good team. This isn’t the 13-4 mirage of 2022. They are favored (albeit slightly, by one point) for a reason. Kevin O’Connell got mileage out of the “nobody believes in us” angle early this season in preparing his team for success, and it is an attitude that has suited the Vikings well. They will have a chance to use it again Monday.

Also, the wild card in this wild-card game is where it will be played. The fires in Los Angeles are very serious, and their impact on sports is very low on the list of things we should care about. That being said, the fires led the NFL to move the game to Arizona, creating a neutral environment that probably will help the Vikings more than the Rams.

This game being away from Minnesota might actually be a good thing for the Vikings, who won’t have to deal with what can be the toxic nervous energy emanating from a home playoff crowd.

I think I am going to pick them to win, but I certainly expect it to be close.