RandBall: Sam Darnold, Case Keenum and the parallels to the 2017 Vikings

Hours before the start of the 2024 season, I professed on social media a level of against-the-grain intrigue about the Vikings. The main impetus: A change at quarterback away from Kirk Cousins was enough to get me engaged at the start of the year, even if rookie J.J. McCarthy was out for the season and placeholder Sam Darnold would be the presumed seasonlong starter.

Astute follower @ripshot44 on X replied, “This is going to be the Keenum year. Darnold going for 38 TDs.” Every subsequent Sunday, as Darnold has piled up impressive numbers — including 11 touchdown passes, at least three more than any other quarterback in the NFL — the same follower has replied to that message with a one word post: “reminder.”

I don’t know if it’s officially safe to make that comparison yet, but we’re getting there. The last time the Vikings had such a level of unexpected QB success was 2017 when Case Keenum vaulted to the top of the depth chart and led the Vikings on a charmed 13-3 journey. The Vikings of course lost badly in the NFC title game, which is why that same astute follower also included, “Prep for heartbreak in January playoffs” as part of that original tweet before the season started.

It is very much like a Vikings fan to be simultaneously optimistic about the present and wary of the future. This is particularly true after a 31-29 victory over the Packers on Sunday that included more big-time Darnold throws — which Patrick Reusse and I talked about on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

But just as there are striking parallels so far between 2017 and 2024, there are also significant differences.

Seven years ago, as Keenum was becoming a feel-good story, I was compelled to write a post about whether the league had undervalued Keenum — an undrafted free agent out of college — before his arrival with the Vikings. Darnold has had the opposite journey, getting ample chances to prove himself as the No. 3 overall pick.

Keenum started for the Vikings in 2017 only because veteran No. 1 guy Sam Bradford was hurt and previous No. 1 guy Teddy Bridgewater still wasn’t fully healthy. Keenum held the job the rest of the year only because he kept succeeding; Mike Zimmer, head coach at the time, even refused to name him the starter from week to week even as wins piled up.

Darnold was thought of as a one-year placeholder for McCarthy, but he was clearly going to be the starter at least at the beginning of the season. Now he has gained the trust of head coach Kevin O’Connell enough that the Vikings came out slinging in a key spot during Sunday’s fourth quarter.

That said, Keenum played 2017 at an extremely high level, finishing the year No. 2 in ESPN’s Total QBR metric with a 73.3 rating. Darnold is No. 3 in that metric so far this year with a mark of 73.6.

And both might end up being here for just one season: Keenum was replaced in 2018 by Cousins, and Darnold replaced Cousins but will potentially give way to McCarthy in 2025.

We learned in 2017 to enjoy the ride with Keenum for as long as it lasted. Maybe that’s good advice for Vikings fans with Darnold in 2024.