AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES
Twins vs. Astros: Playoff roster breakdown, Star Tribune ALDS prediction
A position-by-position comparison of the Twins and Astros shows which team has the edge in the best-of-five series that starts Saturday in Houston.
October 7, 2023 at 4:56PM
TWINS VS. ASTROS
The Twins won the American League Central at 87-75 and were the No. 3 seed in the American League before sweeping No. 6 Toronto in a wild-card series at Target Field. They are 49-34 at home. Target Field is open air, and temperatures for Games 3 and (if necessary) 4 are expected to be in the low 50s.
Houston (90-72) is the defending World Series champion; there has not been a repeat champion in 23 seasons. The American League West champions had a losing record at home (39-42) playing in Minute Maid Park, which has a retractable roof. The Astros were the No. 2 seed and had a first-round bye. Games 1 and 2 are in Houston on Saturday and Sunday.
HITTING
The Twins tied for third in MLB with 233 home runs and were seventh in slugging percentage (.428) while hitting .243 and striking out a major league record 1,654 times. By comparison, the Astros fanned only 1,241 times (third fewest). They hit .259 (fifth in MLB), were seventh in homers (222) and ranked sixth in slugging percentage (.437).
First base
Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano, Twins: Kirilloff (11 HRs in 88 games) will play against righthanders and Solano (.282 in 134 games) against lefties.
Jóse Abreu, Astros: The 2020 AL MVP with the White Sox signed as a free agent and drove in 90 runs. His .383 slugging percentage and .679 on-base-plus-slugging percentage were career lows.
Edge: Houston
Second base
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Edouard Julien, Twins: The Twins leadoff man, a rookie with a .840 OPS, will start against righthanders. Against lefthanders, Jorge Polanco likely will move over to second and Kyle Farmer will start at third with Julien on the bench.
Jose Altuve, Astros: Limited to 90 games because of injury suffered in the preseason World Baseball Classic, he returned to hit .311 with a .915 OPS. The 2017 AL MVP is an eight-time All-Star and former Gold Glove winner.
Edge: Houston
Third base
Jorge Polanco, Twins: The switch-hitting Polanco (14 HRs in 80 games) struggled at third base in the field against the Blue Jays. Farmer often figures to play at third as well.
Alex Bregman, Astros: Like Altuve, he has two World Series rings. He had 25 HRs and 98 RBI. In 86 postseason games, he has 15 home runs and a .237 average.
Edge: Houston
Shortstop
Carlos Correa, Twins: Hobbled by plantar fasciitis, the former Astros star made two standout defensive plays against Toronto and had the only RBI in Game 2. But he's clearly limping.
Jeremy Peña, Astros: Peña replaced Correa at shortstop last season, won a Gold Glove and was the ALCS and World Series MVP. He hit .263 with 10 home runs this season.
Edge: even
Left field
Matt Wallner and Willi Castro, Twins: Lefthanded-hitting Wallner starts against righthanders; Castro is a switch hitter who bats .266 lefthanded and .237 righthanded. Wallner slugged .507, and Castro had 33 steals.
Michael Brantley, Astros: The 36-year-old five-time All-Star has played in only 15 games after missing a year because of shoulder surgery.
Edge: Twins
Center field
Michael A. Taylor, Twins: Taylor has won a Gold Glove and was the regular center fielder when Byron Buxton was only able to play as designated hitter this season. Taylor hit .220 with 21 HRs.
Chas McCormick, Astros: The righthanded hitter is better at the plate (22 HRs, 70 RBI in 115 games) but is not in Taylor's league as a fielder.
Edge: even
Right field
Max Kepler, Twins: He was hitting only .207 at the All-Star break but ended up at .260 and led the team with 24 HRs and 66 RBI.
Kyle Tucker, Astros: An All-Star the past two seasons, he hit 29 home runs and drove in an AL-leading 112 runs.
Edge: Houston
Catcher
Ryan Jeffers, Twins: He had a breakthrough season at the plate (.276 average, .859 OPS) and improved defensively. His backup, Christian Vázquez, caught the last out of the World Series last year for the Astros.
Martín Maldonado, Astros: The 37-year-old is Gold Glove-caliber but a liability at the plate, hitting .191 with 139 strikeouts in 362 at-bats. Yainer Diaz (.282 average) is a quality backup.
Edge: Twins
Designated hitter
Royce Lewis, Twins: The rookie third baseman's hamstring injury has the Twins playing musical chairs in the infield. He came off the injured list and homered in his first two at-bats in the wild-card series.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros: An oblique injury limited him to 114 games, but he still had 31 HRs, 97 RBI and a whopping .990 OPS.
Edge: Houston
Bench
Twins: Farmer, Castro and Solano might not play as much with Houston having no lefthanded relievers, although Farmer and Castro are solid defensive replacements. Vázquez started more games than Jeffers during the season. The Twins hit .244 against righthanders and .241 against lefthanders.
Astros: Mauricio Dubón can play everywhere and does (.278 in 132 games). He and good-fielding Jake Meyers could get outfield starts; Diaz is a hidden gem.
Edge: Twins
PITCHING
Twins pitchers had an MLB-high 9.63 strikeouts per game and walked just 2.73 batters per game (fourth best) with a 1.20 WHIP (fourth). The Astros had a 1.28 WHIP (14th), struck out 9.01 per game and walked 3.31.
Starting pitchers
Twins: RH Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.43 ERA, 146 K), RH Pablo López (11-8, 3.66, 234 K), RH Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79, 183 K), RH Joe Ryan (11-10, 4.51, 197 K), RH Kenta Maeda (6-8, 4.23).
López, second in the AL in strikeouts, and Gray, second in ERA, were the winning pitchers against Toronto and will need another day of rest, so the two All-Stars are in line to start Games 2 and 3. Ober got the nod for Game 1 ahead of Ryan, who is prone to giving up home runs (32, fourth most in the AL), and Maeda.
Astros: RH Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22, 144 K), LH Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45, 200 K), RH Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56, 159 K), RH J.P. France (11-6, 3.83), RH José Urquidy (3-3, 5.29), RH Hunter Brown (11-13, 5.09, 178 K).
Verlander, who won a Cy Young with the Astros last season before signing as a free agent with the Mets, was 7-3 with Houston after returning in a midseason trade. The 40-year-old is 16-11 in 35 postseason games. Valdez threw a no-hitter this season and was an All-Star, and Javier started a combined no-hitter in last year's World Series.
Edge: even
Bullpen
Twins: They gave up no runs in the wild-card series with RH Louie Varland, RH Brock Stewart, LH Caleb Thielbar and RH Griffin Jax setting up RH closer Jhoan Duran. With a possible two days of rest in the series, they should be well set.
Astros: They have flame-throwing righthanders in Ryan Pressly (31 saves in 37 chances), Hector Neris (1.71 ERA in 71 games), Bryan Abreu (1.75 ERA in 72 games), Phil Maton and Rafael Montero. There are no lefthanders in the Astros pen.
Edge: Houston
Managers
Rocco Baldelli, Twins: Played it by the book against the Blue Jays, who outsmarted themselves with a questionable pitching change in Game 2. When Baldelli was born in 1981, Dusty Baker was a 32-year-old All-Star outfielder for the Dodgers.
Dusty Baker, Astros: Future Hall of Famer made the switch from old school to new school and wore out a million toothpicks along the way. In 26 seasons with Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals and Astros he's 2,183-1,862 (seventh all-time in victories).
Edge: Houston
PREDICTION
In a short series, the Twins will need to steal one in climate-controlled Minute Maid and then try to freeze out the Astros in Minnesota next week. Smart money says Astros in four.
A former second-round pick of the Rangers, Alex Speas has pitched in four major league games.
