Neal: What makes an ace? Depending on who you ask, the answer varies

At this early point of a frustrating start to their season, the Twins need an ace-like performance like they need air to breathe.

They could use an elite outing for their home opener Thursday against Houston. An outing during which that pitcher’s arsenal and command leads to overpowering success, a day off for most of the relievers and less button-pushing required by his manager.

That kind of pitcher might not currently exist on the Twins roster.

Pablo López’s eligibility will be discussed here at some point. He did offer up a strong performance Wednesday, when he limited the White Sox to one run over seven innings.

It’s one thing to be a staff ace — Brad Radke did that here for years, and López clearly is the Twins staff ace now — but another to be considered one of the aces of the league. Many teams have good starters but not aces. An ace extends winning streaks and ends losing streaks.

Defining what an ace is in this era is tricky, but I will try.

Wins no longer matter. Too many things out of the pitcher’s control determine wins and losses. Analytics have saved us there. Jacob deGrom won Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 with 10 and 11 wins, respectively.

Aces used to be horses. Last season, only four pitchers reached the 200-inning level. It’s more nuanced than that now.

Alarm bells ring inside managers’ heads after a starter goes through a batting order twice. So one determining factor is how a pitcher stays one step ahead of hitters who have seen him a couple of times already.

“The art form comes out more, right?” Twins pitching coach Pete Maki said. “I think that’s something an ace does, too.”

Or, the stuff is so dominant that it doesn’t matter. Like the changeup thrown by Johan Santana, the Twins’ last ace-level pitcher. Or deGrom, who had multiple elite pitches during his healthier years.

Most of the time — Maki said 85% of the time — declining numbers the third time through the order are not because of declining stuff or command.

“The third-time-through-the-order penalty has mostly to do with hitter familiarity,” Maki said. “Having quick, efficient innings is part of being an ace, because part of being an ace is going deep into games.”

The pitchers who routinely handle batting orders a third time and show elite pitches and command get in the conversation for being an ace. WAR — wins above replacement — is the current jam among folks trying to evaluate a player’s effectiveness. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler leads all pitchers with a combined 22.6 WAR over the past four seasons. He’s followed by San Francisco’s Logan Webb, the New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole, Arizona’s Corbin Burnes and the Yankees’ Max Fried. Toss out Fried, and I’ll take the other four as aces.

More aces, at least in my book: Seattle’s Logan Gilbert and San Diego’s Dylan Cease.

It gets trickier after that. Durability must be considered, so it’s hard to count the injury guys like deGrom, Toronto’s Max Scherzer, Miami’s Sandy Alcantara, the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow or his teammate Blake Snell. They have been aces before or have ace traits. Can they rediscover them? Atlanta’s Chris Sale did last season in winning the NL Cy Young.

Multiple strong seasons should matter as well. So Detroit’s Tarik Skubal or the new hotness himself, Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, have to back up their impressive 2024 seasons.

There is a list of aces-in-training that includes Kansas City’s Cole Ragans, Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene, Washington’s MacKenzie Gore and Boston’s Garrett Crochet.

The Twins’ López is 18th on the WAR list from 2021-24. He’s a fan of WHIP — walks plus hits per innings pitched — when evaluating top pitchers. He pointed out that Pedro Martínez had an astounding 0.923 WHIP during his AL Cy Young-winning 1999 season and backed it up with an even more astounding 0.737 WHIP the following season.

“I like WHIP because it’s like, ‘How much traffic is he dealing with?’ ” López said. “Is he preventing runners from getting on base? If you do a good job at preventing runners from getting on base, it goes hand in hand with ERA.”

The discussion with López was much lengthier as he dived into “process-oriented approaches.” He articulates baseball well and has the tools, including one of the game’s best changeups, to be an ace. I spoke with Twins President Derek Falvey for this. And catcher Ryan Jeffers lauded López’s excellent leadership abilities as part of his winning equation.

They all believe López is at that level.

I think López is one of the top 20 starters in baseball. He’s not quite an ace at this time.

He missed an opportunity in the season opener in St. Louis to outduel his former teammate Sonny Gray — who put up an impressive 5.6 WAR with the Twins in 2023 but also isn’t quite at ace level — and start a season of redemption for the Twins.

López bounced back nicely Wednesday, allowing five baserunners over seven innings and shutting out Chicago until the seventh inning.

López, who turned 29 in March, can get there. He has the stuff, the preparation and headspace to join the elite group. He must pitch deeper into games and consistently tame good hitters. Not just dominating teams like the White Sox, who were historically horrible in losing 121 games in 2024.

He’s certainly capable of pitching like an ace the rest of the season. The way the Twins season has started, they will need him to.