The suspension of Thailand's prime minister over a leaked phone call stirs familiar turmoil

BANGKOK — The Constitutional Court's suspension of Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has raised questions about whether her family's political comeback last year would end with another downfall.

Paetongtarn was the third prime minister in her family, after her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecom billionaire who has been one of Thailand's top political operators, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, who was the country's first female prime minister. Thaksin was ousted by a military coup in 2006 and Yingluck by a court ruling in 2014.

Thaksin remained beloved after his ouster among voters who saw in him and his allies a government that looked after their interests. While campaigning in 2022, Paetongtarn acknowledged her family ties but insisted she was not her father's proxy. ''It's not the shadow of my dad. I am my dad's daughter, always and forever, but I have my own decisions,'' she said.

She also said she hoped her government would be able to ''build opportunity and quality of life'' and ''make the country go forward.''

Paetongtarn was suspended Tuesday by the court pending an ethics investigation a leaked phone call with senior Cambodian leader Hun Sen that was perceived as damaging to Thailand's interests and image.

Eroding trust capped by a diplomatic blunder

Her critics have said Paetongtarn's government has achieved little. Marriage equality became law but was initiated under her predecessor. Controls on cannabis were retightened after public backlash over decriminalization, but the move and its enforcement were called rushed and confusing.

Her critics also cited unsatisfactory outcomes in other Pheu Thai party policies, like unequal minimum wage increases, constant changes in a cash handout program and the stalled and controversial legalization of casinos. They also noted the lack of progress in tariffs talks with the United States.

But analysts see the leaked call following border tensions with Cambodia to be the most disastrous event by far.

The outrage has centered on Paetongtarn's comments about an outspoken Thai army commander and the perception that she was trying to appease Hun Sen.

Paetongtarn apologized but also denied that she had damaged the country. She ignored calls for her to resign or dissolve Parliament to take responsibility, which critics saw as an attempt by the Pheu Thai party to cling to power.

Napon Jatusripitak, a political science researcher at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said her response seemed ''totally disconnected from political reality'' and that the scandal has exposed ''her leadership failures and fuels accusations that she prioritizes family interests over national welfare.''

Adoration for the Shinawatra cools

Her father, Thaksin, is believed to be the key decision maker behind Pheu Thai, now led by Paetongtarn. Time and again, Thaksin-backed parties have prevailed in national elections but could not stay in office after legal rulings and destabilizing street protests engineered by Thaksin's die-hard foes.

But in 2023, Thaksin alienated many of his old supporters with what looked like a self-serving deal with his former conservative opponents. It allowed his return from exile and his party to form the new government, while sidelining the progressive Move Forward Party, which finished first in a national election but was seen by the conservative establishment as a greater threat.

Now with the current crisis, things could drastically change for the Shinawatra family.

''In light of the recent controversy, the Shinawatra spell has been broken. The only viable Shinawatra scion is now tainted,'' Napon said. ''It would be an understatement to say that the Shinawatra name no longer guarantees electoral success.''

And not everything has been squared away with her family's enemies. Yingluck remains in exile, and legal problems — arguably politically inspired — could send her to prison if she returns to Thailand. Thaksin also still faces some legal challenges.

Thailand's royalist establishment has long been disturbed that Thaksin's populist policies appeared to threaten their status and that of the monarchy at the heart of Thai identity.

Paetongtarn now also faces protests by familiar faces from the same conservative, pro-royalist group that opposed her father.

''History seems to be repeating itself in a way. Thailand seems trapped in a depressingly familiar cycle where Shinawatra-led governments come to power, only to face mounting pressure from traditional power centers, street protests, and extraparliamentary interventions that ultimately force them from office,'' Napon said.

Paetongtarn, 38, is the youngest of Thaksin's three children. She was an executive in a hotel business run by her family before making her public entry into politics in 2021 when the Pheu Thai party named her to lead an advisory committee.

She has two children with her husband, Pitaka Suksawat, who was a commercial pilot before he began working in one of the Shinawatras' real estate ventures.