Olson: It’s closing time — state leaders need to get it done, head home

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The 2025 legislative session was never going to be a memorable endeavor with flashy policy bills flying through, tax rebate checks or splashy civic projects.

Two things worked to constrain action at the Capitol: A tight fiscal outlook and closely divided control of both the Senate and the House.

For Capitol insiders, these coming days before the scheduled May 19 adjournment are tense and dramatic, with lobbyists and reporters sitting on cold marble benches and floors as they wait outside closed-door meetings for Gov. Tim Walz and legislative leaders to emerge and drop hints at their decisions.

To those who tune in even casually in coming weeks, it’s going to look gnarly at times with occasional odd and fiery floor speeches about the state heading off a fiscal or moral cliff, crashing to the rocks, never to be reassembled.

Insiders these days are taking their cues from two women in the evenly divided House: Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, and former speaker, now the DFL Leader Melissa Hortman, of Brooklyn Park.

If either one of them shows signs of melting down, we may be cruising toward the rocks, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Last week, they were both optimistic albeit braced for turbulence.

“This is the end. This is the blowup time,” Hortman said. “This is the season where you start to have the warring press conferences, articulations of different positions and critiques of one another.”

Demuth has been insistent that she will end her freshman session at the helm on time. In a flashing neon sign of progress last week, she complimented the governor for turning his focus to the legislative negotiations rather than feeding his appetite for national attention.

So what needs to be done? Beyond the two-year budget bill, very little. Even in the budget, there’s little wiggle room for debate.

The buzz phrase at the Capitol these late-session days is “status quo,” meaning passage of a budget that keeps the state running in much the same fashion it has without detour.

It’s not the sort of thing that’s going to result in celebratory news conferences with drone footage on the Capitol steps, which is not only fine but necessary given turmoil outside Minnesota and changes settling here. We’re still just two years out and adjusting to the tremendous shifts made in 2023 when the DFL ran the policy table at the Capitol because it controlled everything.

Even one of the most experienced lead Republicans at the Capitol is OK with sitting tight. “My goal is to get out of here with no new taxes,” House Taxes Co-Chair Greg Davids of Preston said. “It’s kind of scaring me right now; I’m feeling very positive.”

Davids, it should be noted, has never been one to shy from sharing grim realities. If he’s feeling good, the rest of us can as well.

Minnesota is prepared. Thanks to generations of foresight and planning, the state’s cash reserves are flush and available to cushion what may yet come with the national leadership and global realignment.

And let’s talk about the budget and that looming deficit Republicans hold up as a warning. Minnesota is one of a minority of states that factors inflation into projections. Take out inflation and the future budget picture would look much better. But the Legislature, thus far, has shown remarkable restraint.

Think about that for a moment. The politically expedient thing to do would be to disregard projected inflation, share a more upbeat forecast, maybe spend more money to make more people happy and put off worrying about future bills until they come due.

Instead, state leaders are choosing the thornier path, the one that limits their options today in favor of future flexibility.

That conservative approach and foresight are a big part of the reason we haven’t heard calls for tax cuts, rebates or even a big bonding bill.

But this being the Legislature, political points must be scored and that fight is likely to be centered on an unfortunately popular scapegoat: undocumented immigrants.

Two former top negotiators say immigrants are the target for Republicans looking to peel back initiatives from 2023.

Former House DFL Majority Leader Ryan Winkler said DFLers went to the wall in 2023 to ensure that MinnesotaCare, the state paid health insurance for low-income residents, would cover undocumented immigrants.

“The left is not going to be in any mood to compromise,” he said, but, “The Republicans know they’ve got a hot-button issue and why would they give that up?”

Former Republican Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch agreed. “How do the Democrats give on that and how do the Republicans walk away without that? I don’t know,” she said.

The program started Jan. 1 and early enrollment is nearly three times what was anticipated. Republicans are raising the specter of Minnesota becoming a magnet for undocumented immigrants looking for health care.

That prediction seems premature, especially in light of President Donald Trump’s efforts to deport immigrants quickly without constitutional concerns.

Even if the state were to dial back the coverage for the undocumented, hospitals would still be required to treat them when they show up needing care. Somebody will pay — whether it’s struggling rural hospitals in largely Republican districts or the state itself by providing insurance.

It’s an early-stages program the state will need to closely monitor, but it’s far too soon to dump even at the behest of those who seek political advantage at the expense of the powerless and vulnerable.

On the flip side, even those with a lot of power and money aren’t going to get much satisfaction at the Capitol this year. Legalized mobile sports betting seems unlikely to pass. U.S. Bank Stadium probably won’t get the millions it wants for a secure perimeter. The Minnesota Wild’s request of $50 million for Xcel Energy Center — down from an initial ask of nearly $400 million — is all but dead.

There will be long nights and loud debates in the coming days, but bank on and be satisfied with the status quo. The global upheaval is not yet lashing our state, but soon could. A tranquil finish to the 2025 legislative session should be considered a success as it promises to leave an abundance of good will for likely turbulence ahead.