NFC North Week 4 picks: Packers pass rushers looking forward to Vikings’ visit
The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig takes a spin around the NFC North and finds Marcus Davenport injured again, Cole Kmet thriving in Chicago and a pair of Packers eager to see Vikings QB Sam Darnold.
In Detroit, Marcus Davenport did what Marcus does best: Get hurt early after being given a ton of money and playing just well enough in limited snaps that another team just might start the cycle all over again in March. Vikings fans and Lions fans can argue among themselves as to which team got hoodwinked worse by the edge rusher. The Vikings gave him $13 million for one year last year. An ankle injury limited him to four games and three starts. He had two sacks in 118 snaps. Because of void years in the deal, Davenport also counted $6.8 million in dead money against the Vikings’ salary cap this year. The Lions gave him “only” $6.5 million for one year but also ignored the obvious pitfalls that awaited. Davenport played two games with one start and had a half sack in 89 snaps this season. He counted $3.6 million against Detroit’s cap this year and will count about $3 million next year when, presumably, Davenport is celebrating only his 29th birthday (Sept. 4) with another team.
In Chicago, veteran tight end Cole Kmet is becoming a security blanket for No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams. The super-raw QB threw for 363 yards in a loss to the Colts last week. Ten of his 33 completions went to Kmet, who matched a career high in receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. Williams’ passer rating when targeting Kmet was 133.7, over 50 points higher than his overall rating.
In Green Bay, defenders Kenny Clark and Preston Smith are looking forward to welcoming Vikings QB Sam Darnold to the border battle. Clark has eight of his 34 career sacks in his 14 career starts against the Vikings. Smith has 8½ of his 68 career sacks in 12 starts against the Vikings. Their sack totals rank 1-2 against the Vikings among active players.
The picks
Vikings (+2½) at Packers
Sunday, noon
Unless your wagon is hitched to Patrick Mahomes, your NFL squad is susceptible to the inevitable ups and downs of this league. The Vikings are on the road and they’ve been way up for way too long. But never fear, Vikings fans. You would have given your last $14 beer to exit September 3-1 with Darnold leading the way. Packers 23, Vikings 20
Rams (+3) at Bears
Sunday, noon
Williams has another big passing day but gets the win this time. The Rams upset the 49ers at home, but will slide a bit with a suspect defense and no elite healthy receivers left to lean on. Bears 24, Rams 20
Seahawks (+3½) at Lions
Monday, 7:15 p.m.
Seattle is 3-0 against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. The Lions will expose the Seahawks as Detroit’s defense feeds off a Monday night home crowd and its offense starts to click under Jared Goff. Lions 34, Seahawks 17
Season results
Record/vs. spread: 7-5/8-4.
Vikings pick/vs. spread: 1-2/1-2.
The Minnesota Star Tribune’s Mark Craig takes a spin around the NFC North and finds lots and lots of points in Detroit, improvement in Chicago and smart halftime decisions in Green Bay.