NFC North Week 18 picks: Division title comes down to the final game in Detroit

In Detroit, the Lions are hoping their No. 1-ranked scoring offense (33.3) can spread the Vikings’ No. 4-ranked scoring defense (18.8) too thin to win Sunday night’s showdown between two 14-2 teams playing for the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the league’s final game of the regular season. When tight end Sam LaPorta scored in last week’s 40-34 win at San Francisco, he became the franchise-record seventh Lions player with at least seven touchdowns. The others are Jahmyr Gibbs (16), David Montgomery (13), Amon-Ra St. Brown (12) and Jameson Williams (8).

In Chicago, Caleb Williams has a long way to go in his development, but at least the rookie No. 1 overall pick has showed promise while playing 99% of Chicago’s offensive snaps heading into Sunday’s game at Green Bay, where he’s expected to become the first Bears first-year quarterback to start every game since Jay Cutler in 2009. Williams is completing 61.9% of his passes for 3,393 yards, 19 touchdowns, six interceptions and an 87.4 passer rating. His streak of 353 passes without an interception earlier this year ranks fourth-best in NFL history.

In Green Bay, Cliff Christl of Packers.com notes that the Packers do indeed have the league’s best record since they began their current streak of QB consistency 33 years ago when Ron Wolf and Mike Holmgren believed in and traded for a young kid named Brett Favre. Heading into the final week of the 2024 regular season, the Packers’ 334-195-2 record (.631) since 1992 is nosing out Pittsburgh’s mark of 332-196-3 (.628).

Sunday, 7:20 p.m.

Picking the Lions here is based solely on home-field advantage in a division game in which both teams are deserving of the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Fans of the losing squad that gets stuck with the No. 5 seed should know that all would not be lost with a bummer of a loss. No. 5 seeds have A) won at least one playoff game in 11 of the past 17 seasons; B) are 14-18 in wild-card games in those 17 seasons; and C) have gone on to win two Super Bowls in those 17 seasons (2007 Giants and 2020 Buccaneers). Lions 34, Vikings 33.

Sunday, noon

The Bears were 4-2 heading into the final play at Washington when cornerback Tyrique Stevenson began taunting fans during an infamously premature celebration of what he expected would be Chicago’s fifth victory, not Washington’s game-winning Hail Mary. Eleven games later, the Bears’ season will end with Chicago never reaching that fifth victory. Packers 30, Bears 17.

Record/vs. spread: 39-15/31-21-2.

Vikings pick/vs. spread: 9-7/7-7-2.