Netanyahu's government could collapse over Israel's ultra-Orthodox military draft law

BNEI BARAK, Israel — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a vote to dissolve parliament Wednesday and key coalition partners have threatened to bring down his government.

Still, few think it's the end of the road for Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has been battling corruption charges for years, or his far-right government, still in power after presiding over the security failures surrounding the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

The move to dissolve, called by the opposition, will only pass if Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners break with him over the failure to pass a law exempting their community from military service, an issue that has bitterly divided Israelis, especially during the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

The threats coming from the ultra-Orthodox could be posturing, and many expect Netanyahu to pull off a last-minute deal. But Wednesday's vote is the most serious challenge to Netanyahu's government since the war began, and the coalition's collapse could have major implications for Israel and the ongoing war.

Why the ultra-Orthodox reject military service

Most Jewish men are required to serve nearly three years of military service followed by years of reserve duty. Jewish women serve two mandatory years. But the politically powerful ultra-Orthodox, who make up roughly 13% of Israeli society, have traditionally received exemptions if they are studying full-time in religious seminaries. The exemptions — and the government stipends many seminary students receive through age 26 — have infuriated the general public.

After Hamas' 2023 attack, Israel activated 360,000 reservists, its largest mobilization since the 1973 Mideast war. Israel is engaged in the longest active war in the country's history, which has stretched its robust military to the breaking point.

Many reserve soldiers have served multiple rounds of duty in Gaza totaling hundreds of days. Some reserve soldiers are rejecting new call-ups. The number of Israelis continuing to report for reserve duty has dropped so low that the military has taken to social media to try to recruit people to keep serving.

The enlistment exemption for the ultra-Orthodox goes back to Israel's 1948 founding, when small numbers of gifted scholars were exempt from the draft in response to the decimation of Jewish scholarship during the Holocaust.

But with a push from politically powerful religious parties, the numbers have swelled to tens of thousands today. Israel's Supreme Court said the exemptions were illegal in 2017, but repeated extensions and government delay tactics have prevented a replacement law from being passed.

Among Israel's Jewish majority, mandatory military service is largely seen as a melting pot and rite of passage. That's exactly why some ultra-Orthodox don't want their children to serve.

''It mixes together people with very different backgrounds, very different ideas, some people with very immoral ideas,'' said Rabbi Ephraim Luft, 66, from the ultra-Orthodox stronghold of Bnei Barak. Luft said the community's dedication to upholding Jewish commandments protects the country as much as military service.

''Over thousands of years, the Jewish people have stood very strongly against any kind of decrees to force them to give up their religion, they've given up their lives for this,'' Luft said. ''People have to understand there's no difference between the Spanish Inquisition or the Israeli draft law.''

Why ultra-Orthodox parties would want to bring down the government

Two parties belonging to the Haredim, or ''God-fearing'' in Hebrew, are essential to Netanyahu's coalition. Both would need to vote to dissolve the government to force new elections, including Shas, which has traditionally been more supportive of Netanyahu.

On Monday, a Shas spokesperson told an ultra-Orthodox radio program the party plans to vote in favor of dissolution, unless there is a breakthrough in negotiations. The other party, Degel HaTorah, has been threatening to leave the government since last week.

''Basically, they don't really care about the war and the economic situation of the state and anything else but their communal interest. And the focus of this communal interest is getting the exemption from serving in the army," said Shuki Friedman, an expert on religion and state affairs and vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Friedman and other experts say the current system is unsustainable. With its high birthrate, the ultra-Orthodox are the fastest-growing segment of Israel's population, at about 4% annually. Each year, roughly 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men reach the conscription age of 18, but less than 10% enlist, according to parliament's State Control Committee, which held a hearing examining the issue.

The shock of the Oct. 7 attack appeared to ignite some enthusiasm among the ultra-Orthodox to serve, but no large enlistment materialized. The army has repeatedly declined to comment on the ultra-Orthodox enlistment rate.

What happens if parliament is dissolved

If the dissolution vote passes, it still faces a series of bureaucratic steps, including additional votes, that the government would likely drag on for weeks or months, said Gayil Talshir, a political science professor at Hebrew University.

''It will be like a gun that's been put into position, but that doesn't mean the coalition is over,'' she said. Elections in Israel are scheduled for the fall of 2026.

Both Talshir and Friedman believe it's unlikely the dissolution vote will pass Wednesday. If one ultra-Orthodox party is absent, the vote will not pass and another cannot be brought for six months, Talshir said.

However, there's also a ''valid possibility'' the rabbis who advise the ultra-Orthodox parties will say they've waited long enough for a draft exemption law, because they are facing enormous pressure from their communities, Friedman said. On Tuesday, top Haredi rabbis issued a religious decree emphasizing their stand against military service, which complicates the Haredi politicians' ability to negotiate, Friedman added.

The army has issued thousands of draft notices to the ultra-Orthodox community, and those who refuse to serve can face arrest. While only around a dozen have been arrested after being stopped for trying to leave the country or for traffic violations, the fear this has inspired is significant, he added.

Impact on the war in Gaza and the hostage crisis

Netanyahu frequently cites the ongoing war as a reason Israel needs to provide a united front against its enemies. While the ultra-Orthodox parties remain part of the coalition, they want the war to end as quickly as possible, Talshir said.

''The Haredim think once the war is over, the pressure will be off them and they will be able to get their (military) exemption law,'' she said.