Analysis: Will the Vikings be buyers at the NFL trade deadline? 2022 offers a lesson.

The NFL’s decision to move its trade deadline back by one week means the Vikings will play once more, at home next Sunday night against the Colts, before deciding how aggressive they want to be in pursuit of upgrades for their 2024 roster.

As recently as last Sunday, they were the NFC’s last unbeaten team, with a chance to be 6-1 or even 7-0 at the end of a week with two games against the Lions and Rams. Had the Vikings won both their games, they would have marched into the Colts game (which was moved from a noon kickoff to a Sunday night showdown) with the kind of momentum that might have spurred public pleas for an all-in type of move at the deadline.

Instead, they are 5-2, having lost close games to teams with veteran quarterbacks and adroit play-callers who pierced their defense in a way no team had done yet. A ream of pre-snap penalties hurt them against both Detroit and Los Angeles; the Vikings’ defense gave the Rams three free third-down conversions with penalties on Thursday night. In the heated NFC North race, they are now a half-game behind the Lions, tied with the Packers for second and a half-game ahead of the Bears.

Two losses in five days triggered fatalist impulses from a corner of the fan base who used the loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw to season-ending ACL and MCL injuries to convince themselves the Vikings’ season was doomed. Indeed, the injuries to Darrisaw’s left knee create a concern at another key position where adequate mid-season replacements aren’t easy to find.

“Those conversations are going on as we speak,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said Friday. “When you talk about that mentality of trying to get the best five guys in there, I feel like this is where your O-line depth that we felt good about, gives you possibilities. We’ll figure out what the best plan of attack is. I think there are multiple options on the table.”

As they’re scouring the trade market, the Vikings can put offensive tackle alongside defensive tackle, cornerback and possibly a skill position acquisition on their shopping list. They’ll have to operate with pragmatism, with so many areas they could address and just three draft picks currently in their 2025 stash. But even if the Vikings were to make a big move before the deadline, history suggests they might do so with an eye beyond this year, anyway.

They were off to a surprising 6-1 start two years ago, when they sent a 2023 second-round pick and 2024 third-rounder to Detroit for tight end T.J. Hockenson and a pair of Day 3 picks in 2023 and 2024. The Vikings had lost tight end Irv Smith Jr. for the season, but Hockenson gave the Vikings a better pass-catcher anyway, and the fact that he was a first-round pick meant he wasn’t scheduled to hit free agency until 2024.

“We’re always trying to solve this riddle we have, trying to build the best team with the constraints [we have], with the salary cap being one of them,” General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said after the Vikings made the trade in 2022. “We like the contract. We also like the player: the skill set, what he provides to this offense, how he allows us to play, hopefully this year and next.”

It was one of the bigger trade deadline deals in recent Vikings history, but if not for the fact they were acquiring a 25-year-old player on a rookie contract, it’s worth wondering whether the Vikings would have made it. They’d built a big lead in the NFC North and were fighting for the conference’s top seed, but they were also aware of the decisions that awaited them on veterans like Eric Kendricks and Adam Thielen and their uncertain future at quarterback. Those factors strapped a seat belt over the Vikings’ win-now ambitions in 2022, and even after a 13-4 season, they cut Thielen and Kendricks, before trading Za’Darius Smith and releasing Dalvin Cook.

Hockenson signed a four-year, $66 million extension in August 2023 and will play his first game this season against the Colts after recovering from a torn ACL. The team he rejoins next Sunday, like the team he first joined in 2022, might have reason to be bold with constraints at the deadline.

The Vikings have achieved their first-half success with the NFL’s fifth-oldest roster, full of veterans who’ve delivered impressive results on one-year contracts. That’s helped the Vikings remain in playoff contention after moving on from Kirk Cousins, with Sam Darnold having the best season of his career, but it also means their window isn’t fully open yet.

They face decisions on their top three cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore, Byron Murphy Jr. and Shaq Griffin), who are all free agents after the season, and running back Aaron Jones will hit the open market again after his 30th birthday in December. Valuable role players like Kamu Grugier-Hill, Jihad Ward, Jonathan Bullard and Johnny Mundt will be free agents, and the Vikings will have to decide on a long-term deal for safety Camryn Bynum right as Harrison Smith becomes a free agent weeks after his 36th birthday. And if J.J. McCarthy is ready to take over after returning from his torn right meniscus, the Vikings could be in line for another QB transition next year.

Cousins’ departure figures to net them a third-round compensatory pick next year, but the Vikings currently have only their first-rounder and two fifth-rounders. They’ll have more cap space than in years, with upward of $60 million to build their roster, but they need long-term answers at cornerback, help on the defensive line, a succession plan at running back and possibly another pass-catcher to ease McCarthy’s transition, in addition to defensive depth and a possible short-term fill-in for Darrisaw.

It’s enough that if the Vikings make a big move at the trade deadline, they could be inclined to focus on players who gave them what Hockenson did in 2022: immediate help with long-term flexibility. For example: Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II is just 24, with a fifth-year option for 2025. He wouldn’t come cheap, but a young corner who’d fit the Vikings’ scheme might be worth dealing the 2025 first-round pick, especially if the choice could be late in the first round.

As they return from their mini-bye, the Vikings will spend plenty of time rifling through options to improve a team that, even after back-to-back losses, still has strong playoff hopes in the NFC.

“I’ve got to make sure I’m pushing us to reach our truest potential as a team this year because I believe that is a special thing,” O’Connell said after the Rams loss on Thursday night. “I believe that now more than ever.”

That potential is part of the riddle Adofo-Mensah mentioned two years ago and never stops trying to crack. So is McCarthy’s readiness, Dallas Turner’s ability to become an every-down edge rusher, Justin Jefferson’s continued excellence and the Vikings’ future draft capital. On Thursday night, Darrisaw’s health became a piece of the riddle.

As the Vikings work on it at the deadline, they might find, as they did in 2022, the best answer is a deal that helps them now and later.

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