Ben Goessling’s prediction: Vikings or Lions? Who will win the coveted NFC North title and No. 1 seed?

The winner of Sunday night’s game will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and the NFC North champion for the second time in three years. The loser will be the first 14-win wild card in NFL history. There just haven’t been many regular-season games with the magnitude of Sunday night’s matchup between the Vikings and Lions, the final game of a 2024 season where the NFC North has become one of the most competitive divisions in league history. On Sunday night, the Vikings can claim home-field advantage for the first time since 1998, but they will need to beat the Lions at Ford Field for the first time since the 2020 regular-season finale.

Winner gets the bye — and the division: The winner will get a week off to recover from a matchup that could be reprised in the later rounds of the playoffs, and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. Neither team will see its season end with a loss in this game, so the stakes aren’t quite at playoff level. In the regular season, though, it’s difficult to imagine anything being bigger. The Lions kept the Vikings from winning the NFC North at Ford Field two years ago before they took the title from the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last year. The Vikings, Justin Jefferson said this week, haven’t forgotten what it felt like to watch Detroit celebrate on their field last year. “It doesn’t sit with us well,” he said. “We want to have that same feeling going into their stadium.”

Lions’ man coverage could create showdown with Jefferson: According to Sports Info Solutions, no team has played more man coverage this season than the Lions. They’ve typically tried to challenge Jefferson with physical coverage, but they haven’t been able to slow him down much; he had seven catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup in October, and had surpassed 120 yards in six of his seven previous games against them. With cornerback Carlton Davis out because of a fractured jaw, Jefferson could be in line for another big day. First-round pick Terrion Arnold has struggled this season, though the Lions have outstanding slot corner Brian Branch for when Jefferson lines up inside.

Vikings will try to give Darnold time: The Lions pass rush has suffered the losses of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, and Detroit has only five sacks in its past four games. Detroit has traded for former Vikings pass rusher Za’Darius Smith since the first meeting between the teams; Smith will play right end in the Lions’ nickel packages matchup against left tackle Cam Robinson in passing situations. Detroit blitzed Sam Darnold on only 10 of his 35 dropbacks in the first meeting but created eight pressures on those plays; the Lions could try to dial up blitzes on Sunday to see if the Vikings can protect Darnold as well as they did last week against Green Bay.

Stopping Goff is first priority: Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 71.7% of his passes this season and burned the Vikings with throws over the middle in the first game between the teams. He has thrived in coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense, improved against the blitz and is having the best season of his nine-year career by every possible metric. When teams can get past the vaunted Lions offensive line to pressure Goff, that’s where he struggles; the Vikings didn’t have Blake Cashman in the first matchup and could have more effective pressure packages to affect Goff with the linebacker back for this game.

No Montgomery, but Gibbs has kept running game going: Running back David Montgomery has been out because of a knee injury since Week 15 for the Lions, but with second-year back Jahmyr Gibbs still thriving in the Detroit backfield, the Lions haven’t let Montgomery’s injury affect their outstanding run game much. They rank third in the NFL with a 45.5% success rate on their runs, and Gibbs (who’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season) has posted 431 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in Detroit’s last three games. He had 116 yards and two scores in the first meeting; the Lions will use him in the passing game, and run him on all four downs (as the Vikings saw in the first matchup).

Vikings

Lions

The Vikings have won nine in a row since losses to the Lions and Rams in October. They are healthier than Detroit and head to Ford Field well-stocked with both confidence and motivation before a game that’s had a massive buildup heading into the regular season’s final week. But the Lions have weathered their extensive slate of injuries through Johnson’s ingenuity, coach Dan Campbell’s bravado and Goff’s stellar play. Their fans would like nothing more than to see them secure home-field advantage for a possible run to the team’s first Super Bowl, so nothing will come easy for the Vikings on Sunday night. Still, in a game where there should be plenty of points, the Vikings’ edge in terms of health could lead them to make one or two more plays that turn out to be the difference. Vikings 35, Lions 31

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