Vikings-Lions preview and prediction: Will a top offense or top defense prevail in NFC North clash?

The Vikings are back at U.S. Bank Stadium for the first time since Sept. 22, and they’re once again facing a team that made a playoff run in 2023. This time, they’re doing so with big stakes in the NFC North.

There are two teams in the NFC with fewer than two losses through six weeks: the undefeated Vikings and the 4-1 Lions, who sit a game behind Minnesota in the division. The Vikings have lost four of their past five to the Lions, who were winless in 2021 before beating the Vikings at Ford Field and reached the NFC Championship Game last year.

Division — and conference — stakes on the line: It hasn’t happened much between these two teams, but in addition to fighting for the lead in what currently looks like the NFL’s toughest division, the Vikings and Lions are battling for the No. 1 spot in the NFC. If the Vikings win on Sunday, they’ll have two fewer losses than every team in the conference, heading into a stretch of their schedule that looks like an inviting counterpoint to their tough early slate. If the Lions win for the second straight year at U.S. Bank Stadium, they’ll have an early tiebreaker over the Vikings in the building where they clinched their first division championship in 30 years last December.

Jefferson looks for another big game vs. Detroit: In eight career games against the Lions, Justin Jefferson has surpassed 100 yards six times. He has three of his top five single-game yardage totals against Detroit, and he’s done so despite the Lions’ tendency to grab him throughout games. He said this week he expects physical coverage again from the Lions, who have been flagged more than any secondary in the NFL. “Sometimes the refs might call it, sometimes they don’t,” Jefferson said. “Sometimes they just let us play, and you have to work through that contact.“

Lions will try to pressure Darnold without Hutchinson: Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson had 7½ sacks through five games and looked like an early contender for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors until he broke his leg last Sunday in Dallas. With Hutchinson out for the season, the Lions will turn to Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike at defensive end. Defensive tackles Alim McNeill and D.J. Reader might be the most formidable pieces of the Detroit line, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn could send Alex Anzalone on blitzes through the middle.

Flores has Gilmore again for latest matchup with Goff: Though Jared Goff finally broke his long stretch of futility against Brian Flores with two big games against the Vikings at the end of last season, the Vikings’ defensive coordinator has a stronger secondary this season headlined by a figure from Goff’s past: Stephon Gilmore. The veteran cornerback sealed the Patriots’ Super Bowl LIII victory over Goff and the Rams with an interception in January 2019. Gilmore, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy give the Vikings a stronger cornerback group than they had in two games at the end of last season, when the Lions scored 30 points. Flores will try to confuse Goff with different coverage looks than he saw last year, which could buy time for the Vikings to pressure a QB they sacked only twice last season.

Lions‘ two-back run game presents a challenge: The Vikings have allowed just 336 rushing yards this season (second-fewest in the NFL) while playing with a lead most of the year. The Lions have run for 789 (fourth-most in the league), again while playing with a lead most of the time. Detroit will fight for control of the game behind an offensive line stocked with first-round picks and the two-back complement of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who’ve each been successful on at least 57% of their runs this year.

Vikings

Out: LB Blake Cashman (toe), CB Akayleb Evans (hip)

Questionable: TE T.J. Hockenson (knee), G Dalton Risner (back), RB Aaron Jones (hamstring), LB Patrick Jones II (shoulder), DT Harrison Phillips (shoulder)

Lions

Out: Christian Mahogany (illness)

Questionable: CB Carlton Davis III (quad), G Kevin Zeitler (groin)

The Lions have few holes, and their ground game will give the Vikings plenty to contend with on defense. It’s where Cashman’s absence could hurt. But the Lions’ pass rush isn’t quite as formidable without Hutchinson, and Davis’ status is worth monitoring given all the trouble the Lions have had covering Jefferson. The Vikings’ ground game could also get a boost from Jones, whom a source said is expected to play. Goff could be the first QB to solve Flores’ defense this season, but with the Vikings playing at home, it’s hard to pick against them until somebody beats them. Vikings 31, Lions 27

Got a question about the Vikings? Email it to accessvikings@startribune.com. We’ll answer your questions in an upcoming Access Vikings newsletter or podcast.