Analysis: Caleb Williams’ Bears might not be who we think they are heading into Vikings game

Vikings fans probably already know not to assume victory. Ever. But if you’ve penciled Sunday’s game at Chicago into your two-score breather win column because the Bears have lost four straight, employ an unpolished rookie quarterback who’s been sacked a league-high 41 times and have canned a coordinator before Thanksgiving, well …

Beware Da Bears.

Why?

A. About this time last year, the Vikings were still a playoff contender at 6-5. The Bears were 3-8. Chicago won 12-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium in prime time.

B. Two of the Bears’ four straight losses came on the infamous 52-yard Hail Mary at Washington and a blocked field goal at home against the Packers last week. That’s two walk-off losses at the buzzer against two teams that are a combined 14-7 and currently own the NFC’s last two playoff seeds.

C. Chicago’s defense is ranked seventh in points allowed (18.7) and first in the red-zone success (40.63%).

And, last but not least …

D. The aforementioned unpolished rookie QB — No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams — actually looked pretty darn good in last week’s 20-19 loss to Green Bay. So did interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, the former passing game coordinator who replaced the fired Shane Waldron four days earlier.

“I liked the tempo in which we operated in terms of play-caller to quarterback,” said coach Matt Eberflus, the guy who fired Waldron, whose approach helped Williams to a 4-2 start but also contributed to getting him sacked 15 times in the two weeks before the move was made.

Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. also noticed a different look to Williams against the Packers.

“I would say he was more on the safer side and getting the ball out quick,” Murphy said. “He’s definitely still a mobile guy. More mobile than I thought he was before Sunday. They ran the ball more. A little more boots. Getting the ball out fast and making better decisions.”

Sunday was indeed a different look for the Bears than in recent weeks. In a close game against a quality opponent, they were more balanced with 34 runs and 34 pass plays, including three sacks.

Williams got his top three receivers — D.J. Moore, rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen — involved early and often, targeting each of them at least seven times while completing 23 of 31 passes. Williams also posted a career-high 70 yards rushing on nine carries (7.8-yard average) as the Bears ran for 179 yards and two scores.

“One thing I think that helped them was a lot more screens to D.J. Moore,” Murphy said. “That’s smart because D.J. is one of the best receivers in the league with the ball in his hands.”

That was Eberflus’ feeling as well. He emphasized it to Brown, who built a game plan that fed Moore a game-high seven catches for 62 yards.

The Bears also converted 56.3% of their third downs (9 of 16). Not bad for a team ranked 31st (31.88%). They also converted all three fourth-down attempts.

Meanwhile, the Bears didn’t turn the ball over for a third straight game, something they haven’t done since 1979. Williams went a fourth straight game without an interception, the longest by a Bears quarterback since Brian Hoyer in 2016, and the longest by a Bears rookie quarterback since at least 1950.

Williams also was an improbable clutch performer at the end. Trailing by 1 with time running out, he escaped pressure and hit Odunze for a 16-yard gain on third-and-19. Then, on fourth-and-3, he hit Odonze’s back shoulder perfectly for a 21-yard gain. Then he threw a blitz-beater to Allen for 12 yards to set up a 46-yard field goal attempt with three seconds left.

The Packers blocked the kick. The Bears lost. And what should have been Williams’ first game-winning drive in the NFL became another loss and perhaps an easier path to some Vikings fans taking Da Bears a tad or two more for granted than maybe they should.

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