The Twins limped into the All-Star break a season ago with a sub-.500 record (45-46) and all sorts of questions about their direction.
Three reasons the Twins could surge or struggle after the break
Minnesota is well ahead of last year’s pace at the All-Star break but well behind where it was in the standings a year ago. Will the Twins turn it on once play resumes?
The Minnesota Star Tribune
July 16, 2024 at 12:07AM
But they were also only a half-game out of first place thanks to the comically weak AL Central. By going 42-29 after the break, the Twins ended up cruising to a division title and building the sort of momentum that led to their most successful postseason in more than two decades.
This year’s Twins are objectively better at the break, sitting 12 games over .500 (54-42) even after a concerning 7-13 start. But they trail Cleveland by 4½ games, while Kansas City is not far behind the Twins and Detroit is much improved.
A wild-card berth or a repeat division title are both within reach for this year’s Twins, but each is far from being guaranteed.
Three big factors will determine how the Twins fare the rest of the way, as Patrick Reusse and I talked about for part of Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
Health: In the final game before the break on Sunday, the Twins started Diego Castillo at third base, Willi Castro at shortstop and Manuel Margot in center. Royce Lewis has been out for two weeks, Carlos Correa is managing a foot injury, Jose Miranda recently went on the injured list because of a back issue and Byron Buxton was held out as a precaution after crashing hard into a wall Saturday.
The good news? None of the injuries seems too serious, and most (if not all) those players could be back when play resumes Saturday. But it does show how perilous a roster is when there’s a wave of injuries.
Starting pitching: The Twins rank No. 24 in ERA by starting pitchers this year after finishing No. 2 in that stat last season. And that’s with relatively good health for their preferred starters this season.
The good news? The Twins couldn’t really have asked for much more from their Nos. 2-5 starters this season, with Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober throwing like capable mid-to-upper-rotation pitchers while Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson hold down the back end. The Twins would be flirting with a top-10 starter ERA as a staff if Pablo Lopez (5.11 ERA) was having the same results as a year ago. They need him to turn things around in the final two-plus months.
Schedule: The Twins will face the seventh-hardest remaining schedule, according to opponent winning percentage, once the break is over.
The good news? Cleveland faces the second-toughest remaining schedule, meaning the Twins still have a decent shot of gaining ground and overtaking the Guardians in the division. The teams play each other eight more times this year, though the Twins are 0-5 against Cleveland this season.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
