Preakness Stakes: Star Tribune handicapper Jay Lietzau predicts the winner and tells how to bet the race
The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes will be Saturday, and Star Tribune handicapper Jay Lietzau has suggestions.
By Jay Lietzau
Canterbury Park Preakness Stakes and season opener for live racing
How to watch: TV coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. on CNBC and moves to NBC at 3:30 p.m. Streamed coverage is available on Peacock and nbcsports.com. The race is scheduled to start at 5:50 p.m.
Story lines for this year’s race
Two weeks after a three-horse photo finish was needed to declare the 150th winner of the Kentucky Derby, the 3-year-olds head east to Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore to compete in the 149th Preakness Stakes.
Horses to know: MYSTIK DAN (5) was the winner by a nose in the Kentucky Derby photo finish after scraping paint on the inside and holding off the late closers. Can Mystik Dan repeat that performance on only two weeks of rest and head to Saratoga with a chance at the Triple Crown? MUTH (4) was the expected heavy favorite for the Bob Baffert barn. Unfortunately, Muth spiked a fever Wednesday and was scratched. SEIZE THE GREY (6) and JUST STEEL (7) will start for 88-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Lukas has won the Preakness Stakes six times, most recently with Oxbow in 2013.
Likely winner: TUSCAN GOLD (8) is a lightly raced colt conditioned by Chad Brown, who has two Preakness Stakes wins on his résumé. He’s making only his fourth start, but he appears to be peaking at the right time. He broke his maiden convincingly in January at Gulfstream and then moved into graded stakes competition. In his most recent start in the Louisiana Derby, he broke from the 10 post and raced wide throughout but still managed to last the longest of the horses that were battling for the early lead. His recent workouts are razor sharp, indicating he’s sitting on a big one.
Contenders: IMAGINATION (9) is the West Coast shipper for the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn. Although the favorite, Muth, had to scratch, Baffert has a more-than-capable insurance policy here. Never worse than second in six career stars, so you know he’s going to be there at the end. Possesses lethal early speed, but can he relax enough early to finish strong late? If Imagination is allowed to establish moderate early fractions without pressure, Baffert may add the ninth Preakness trophy to his collection. MYSTIK DAN (5) comes off his Derby victory with added confidence. The McPeek barn didn’t commit to the Preakness Stakes until this week so you might question their intentions. He ran a great race in Louisville, but not his career-best speed figure, so there might be more in the tank. However, Brian Hernandez gave him the perfect trip in the Derby and he barely won and now he’s back on two weeks of rest after that all-out effort. Is it possible he may bounce?
Long shot: JUST STEEL (7) has danced every dance as he starts for the 13th time Saturday. Lukas is a legend and will have him prepared for a maximum effort. In the Kentucky Derby, he uncharacteristically battled for the early lead and tired badly. Expect to see his more typical running style on Saturday as he attempts to hit the board at a big price like he did in the Arkansas Derby (32-1) when he finished second between Muth and Mystik Dan.
$100 wagering strategy
$35 exacta: Tuscan Gold (8) / Mystik Dan (5), Imagination (9) ($70)
$5 trifecta: Tuscan Gold (8) / Mystik Dan (5), Imagination (9) / Catching Freedom (3), Mystik Dan (5), Just Steel (7), Imagination (9) ($30)
about the writer
Jay Lietzau
Nittany Lions converted on three fourth downs while protecting one-point lead to keep Gophers from getting ball back.