Is Gov. Tim Walz vulnerable heading into possible re-election campaign?

If Tim Walz wants to secure a rare third term as Minnesota’s governor, he’ll need to overcome an erosion of support outside the Twin Cities and convince a wary electorate that 12 years in office is not too much.

More voters recently polled by the Star Tribune said they’d rather see Walz step aside than seek a third term next year, and at least 6 in 10 registered voters outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties said they disapprove of the governor’s performance in office, including in the suburbs.

At the same time, Walz’s support in the core metro counties reached its highest level yet in the Minnesota Poll, suggesting the 2026 race for governor could be even more sharply defined by an urban-rural divide.

“He is probably worse positioned than he was in greater Minnesota,” said Eric Ostermeier, a Humphrey School of Public Affairs research fellow and elections expert at the University of Minnesota. “The question is, overall, is he then better positioned in the Twin Cities and the suburbs and exurbs to make up for that?”

The DFL governor was expected to announce whether he’ll seek re-election in the early summer, but the recent death of his close legislative partner and friend, Melissa Hortman, is likely to push his decision further off. A spokesman for Walz didn’t seem concerned by the Minnesota Poll findings when asked last week, saying, “we’ve seen polls that show him up and down and everywhere in between.”

But former Minnesota DFL Chair Mike Erlandson said Walz will need to carefully consider his message if he runs again. To better appeal to suburban, rural and independent voters, Erlandson said Walz should run on a message of civility and “put some of the partisan rhetoric aside.”

“As an executive seeking a third term, can he bring people together in a way that resonates with those voters that are a little less partisan?” Erlandson said.

If Walz does run, he’ll face an electorate that appears to have more strongly formed opinions about him than it did the last time he sought re-election in 2022.

Just 1% of voters in the latest Star Tribune/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota Poll said they were undecided on Walz’s performance. Walz’s failed bid for vice president last year put him in front of a national audience, exposing his record for better or worse. He hasn’t closed the door on a possible national bid in 2028.

“Engaging in national politics is risky in terms of a candidate’s home state standing,” said former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who ran for president in 2012. “Some voters are proud of the visibility it brings for our state — but other voters, especially independents, don’t like officeholders being too distracted or becoming more polarizing as part of a national campaign.”

Fifty percent of voters in the latest Minnesota Poll said they disapproved of Walz’s performance, including a majority of independents. There also was a stark gender divide, with nearly 2 in 3 men disapproving of Walz’s performance compared with 60% of women who approved.

Pawlenty said Walz’s approval rating is an important but incomplete measure. It doesn’t answer the question of, “compared to who?” he said.

“Walz will be running against a Republican candidate and my party’s recent record of nominating candidates who can actually win a statewide election isn’t exactly stellar,” said Pawlenty, the last Republican to win a statewide election in Minnesota in 2006.

The GOP has struggled to put up formidable nominees for governor in recent years. Scott Jensen, the party’s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, lost to Walz by more than 7.5 percentage points and received fewer votes than the GOP’s candidates for attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor.

Walz also appeared to be vulnerable heading into that race after his first term was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic and riots that erupted in Minneapolis after the killing of George Floyd.

“If you’re Walz, you have some confidence that ‘I’ve navigated choppy waters before [and] can do it again,’” said David Sturrock, a political science professor at Southwest Minnesota State University.

Only one prominent Republican, Kendall Qualls, has entered the 2026 race for governor so far. Qualls, an Army veteran and former health care executive, campaigned for governor in 2022 and narrowly lost the GOP’s endorsement to Jensen.

Jensen told the Minnesota Star Tribune earlier this year he also is considering running for governor again. Other Republicans who’ve expressed interest in the governor’s office include former Minnesota GOP Chair David Hann and Republican state Sen. Zach Duckworth.

On the Democratic side, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon and U.S. Rep. Angie Craig previously signaled interest in running for governor if Walz stepped aside. Craig is now running for U.S. Senate.

The state’s growing political divide could play into Republicans’ favor next year if they can nominate a strong candidate with broad appeal, Ostermeier said. While Minnesota Democrats have enjoyed a historic streak of statewide election victories, their support in greater Minnesota has been diminishing each year, he said.

In the 2022 election, 49 Minnesota counties saw sizable shifts further right. Jensen managed to flip eight counties that went for Walz in 2018, all but one in greater Minnesota.

The southern Minnesota congressional district that Walz represented until 2018 has become a conservative stronghold in recent years. And Ostermeier noted that Democrats no longer control any state House districts in greater Minnesota that do not have a four-year college or university.

“It’s a decimation of the party in the rest of the state,” he said. “But they’ve been able to pick up enough in the suburbs and exurbs to make up for it.”

Walz’s support in suburbs outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties also declined in the latest Minnesota Poll, with 60% of respondents saying they disapprove of Walz’s performance compared with 39% who approve.

Walz won Dakota and Washington counties when he ran for re-election in 2022 while losing Scott, Carver and Anoka counties.

“If Republicans nominated a slightly less conservative or polarizing figure, they would be winning many, many of these races,” Ostermeier said.

Democrats could have momentum on their side, though, in what will be the first midterm election of President Donald Trump’s second term. In most midterm elections going back nearly a century, the president’s party has lost seats in Congress.

“I think the motivation factor on the Democratic side is likely to be larger in 2026 than it’s going to be for Republicans,” Erlandson said.

Walz would make history if he runs for a third term and wins. No Minnesota governor has ever served three consecutive four-year terms.

Rudy Perpich was the only Minnesota governor to seek a third consecutive four-year term in 1990. He lost to Arne Carlson.

Pawlenty didn’t even make it out of the Republican primary when he sought a third nonconsecutive term in 2018, several years after he left the governor’s mansion.

Walz would stand alone as Minnesota’s longest-serving governor if he stayed in the office for 12 years.