College Hockey Insider: Gophers will try to buck trend of teams ousted early in conference tournaments

As the Gophers skated off the ice at 3M Arena at Mariucci on Sunday night, the hooting and hollering from Notre Dame’s fan contingent served as a parting dose of reality.

A Minnesota team that earned a share of the Big Ten’s regular-season title just had been escorted out of the conference playoffs in a Game 3 quarterfinal loss to the last-place Fighting Irish.

Suddenly, all kinds of questions regarding the Gophers moved to the forefront. Why has the scoring dried up? What’s wrong with the goaltending? And first and foremost: What does this mean for their hopes of winning the NCAA tournament?

Coach Bob Motzko acknowledged the mistakes the Gophers made in losing twice to Notre Dame. And he knows that the margin of error is gone now — everything left is single-elimination play in the NCAA tournament. However, he wasn’t panicking.

“The sky’s not falling,” Motzko said, “... we’re going to play again.”

It’s just going to be a while — either March 27 or 28 in an NCAA regional at a site that will be announced March 23.

The route that the Gophers (25-10-4) must take in their attempt to win their first national championship since 2003 — rebounding from a first-round ouster in their conference tournament — isn’t a well-worn path.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to a 16-team format in 2003, only two eventual champions — Denver in 2004 and Providence in 2015 — failed to advance out of the first round of their conference tournament.

In 2004, Denver was swept by Colorado College in the WCHA’s first round, then beat Miami (Ohio) 5-2 and stunned No. 1 overall seed North Dakota 1-0 in the West Regional in Colorado Springs. At the Frozen Four in Boston, the Pioneers dispatched Minnesota Duluth 5-3 in the semifinals and edged Maine 1-0 for the national championship, finishing 27-12-5.

In 2015, Providence lost its Hockey East quarterfinal series 2-1 to New Hampshire. As a No. 4 seed, the Friars beat top-seeded Miami (Ohio) 7-5 and Denver 4-1 in the East Regional in Providence. At the Frozen Four in Boston, the Friars beat Nebraska Omaha 4-1 in the semifinals and Boston University 4-3 in the final to finish 26-13-2.

So, we’re tellin’ ya there’s a chance.

“That’s not the one that we’re really out to win,” defenseman Luke Mittelstadt said of the Big Ten tourney title. “We’re out to win a national championship.”

Recent history shows that the path used most frequently to win the national championship is first winning your conference tournament. In the 16-team NCAA tournament era, 10 of the 21 national champions started their run to glory by winning their conference tournament.

Eight champions in those 21 tournaments came from teams that won their conference regular-season title, while six national champions in that span won neither their conference regular-season title nor its tournament. Five teams – Denver in 2005, Boston University in 2009, Boston College in 2012 and Union in 2014 – were triple crown winners: conference regular season, conference tournament, NCAA tournament.

Minnesota has won five NCAA championships, and four of them came in seasons when the Gophers also won their conference tournament but not the regular-season title. The only exception was in 2002, when they lost in the WCHA tourney final.

Regardless of how they accomplish it, the Gophers are down to their last goal: Win one game four times in row.

“We know we’re a good team,” senior forward Mason Nevers said Sunday. “This weekend didn’t change that.”

Here’s a look at this week’s projection of the NCAA Division I men’s tournament using the PairWise Ratings to fill the field. Regionals are March 27-30, and the Frozen Four is April 10-12 in St. Louis.

Manchester, N.H., Regional

1. Boston College vs. 16. Sacred Heart

8. Providence vs. 9. Denver

Toledo, Ohio, Regional

2. Michigan State vs. 13. Quinnipiac

7. Connecticut. vs. 10. Ohio State

Allentown, Pa., Regional

3. Maine vs. 14. Michigan

6. Boston University vs. 12. Penn State

Fargo, N.D., Regional

4. Gophers vs. 15. Minnesota State Mankato

5. Western Michigan vs. 11. Massachusetts

Comments: Penn State must be the host school in Allentown, so it is moved from the No. 12 seed in Fargo to Allentown, with No. 13 Massachusetts moving to Fargo. That also breaks up a Boston U-UMass first-round intraconference matchup.

* No. 15 Minnesota State moves from Toledo to Fargo for attendance purposes, with Quinnipiac moving to Toledo. This creates one fewer team requiring a flight. Minnesota State can bus to Fargo, and the NCAA committee has a history of grouping Minnesota teams in regionals held in Fargo or Sioux Falls.

Last two at-large teams in field: Michigan, Massachusetts.

Last at-large out: Arizona State, UMass-Lowell.