Analysis: How the legend of ‘Dan Gamble’ got its start in an infamous upset of the Vikings

It’s Dec. 5, 2021. Ford Field. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 0-10-1 as Detroit Lions. The Vikings are in town. They’re 5-6 and trailing 23-21. There’s 4:08 left and Campbell has called timeout because it certainly appears as if the big fella wants to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 28-yard line.

Jay Feely has drawn the short stick and is working the game as a Fox Sports game analyst. He’s dumbfounded.

He implores Campbell to punt the ball.

“The Vikings are already in field-goal range! … Your team is 10-for-24 on fourth down this season! … You went for it on fourth-and-1 on the game’s first drive and didn’t get it! …”

What Feely didn’t realize, what none of us realized, was the legend of “Dan Gamble” as a successful swashbuckler and NFL Coach of the Year candidate was being birthed in that game. And, like actual childbirth, it was messy before it became a marvel.

Goff was sacked. Six plays later, the Vikings led 27-23.

But …

The Lions still won on a 11-yard walk-off touchdown pass from Goff to Amon-Ra St. Brown as Cam Dantzler became the rare cornerback in NFL history to backpedal all the way to the back of the end zone while giving an uncovered receiver a 2-yard cushion in the front of the end zone.

There were only 4 seconds left when the ball was snapped. So it doesn’t matter what down it was. But it is somehow fitting that “Dan Gamble” got his first win as Lions coach on fourth-and-2.

“Going for it is their mentality,” said Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman. “And fourth down is the sword they live and die on.”

There’s been more living than dying of late. Including playoffs, Campbell, Goff and this tough-as-trigonometry squad is 40-19 since that 0-10-1 start in 2021. The 2024 team has a franchise-record 14 wins and needs a win over the Vikings at Ford Field on Sunday night to clinch the first No. 1 seed in franchise history.

You can almost guarantee that a fourth-down play will hold a key to the outcome in a game between two evenly matched 14-2 teams. Especially in Detroit.

Campbell has gone for it a league-high 147 times on fourth down since taking over the Lions. He has been successful 82 times, a 55.8% rate that’s 10th-best. He’s also 9-for-12 on fake punts, including a conversion this season that saw Detroit punter Jack Fox throw for 17 yards while standing inside his own 10-yard line.

This season, the Lions rank fifth in fourth-down conversions (69%, 20 of 29). The Vikings, meanwhile, rank first in fourth-down defense (35.5%, 11 of 31).

“Detroit probably more than anyone has a depth of plays and personnel they can go to on fourth down,” Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. “But that’s kind of a leaguewide trend. There’s a lot more fourth-down attempts than five, 10 seasons ago. It’s not just it’s third down and it’s over, which historically that’s what it’s been.”

You can say that again. In 2014, NFL teams went for it on fourth down 451 times in a 16-game schedule. Through 16 games this season, teams have gone for it 701 times, an increase of 250. And their success rate (57.3%, 402 of 701) also is better than 2014 (45.9%, 207 of 451).

What makes the Lions particularly dangerous on fourth down? Let us count the ways …

1. Play-calling diversity from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

One of the league’s hottest head coaching candidates, Johnson is 10-for-13 when running the ball on fourth-and-1 or 2, and 8-for-11 when passing the ball on fourth-and-1 to 5 this season.

“It’s hard to find tendencies with them,” Cashman said. “Ben Johnson does a really good job giving you certain looks where you’re expecting certain plays, but then he gives you something totally different.”

2. Decisiveness from ‘Dan Gamble.’

“They use tempo to their advantage,” Vikings cornerback Shaq Griffin said. “I think they move so quickly that sometimes it catches defenses off-guard. You have to expect them to go for it.”

3. Trick plays.

Offensive tackles catching the ball. Offensive tackles attempting passes. You name it, the Lions aren’t afraid to try it.

“Ben’s got a lot in his bag,” Flores said. “And we got to be ready for all of it.”

4. One of the league’s best offensive lines.

“It starts up front with them,” Vikings edge rusher Jonathan Greenard said.

5. No regrets.

In 2021, when he was being laughed at, Campbell repeatedly said he had no regrets for any decisions he had made on fourth down. By now, he has built a teamwide mentality of going for it and never looking back whether the results are good, bad or as ugly as the quirky option call the Lions tried on the opening drive of the Oct. 20 game at U.S. Bank Stadium.

It was fourth-and-7 from the Detroit 34. The Vikings weren’t fooled and stopped the runner for a 1-yard gain. Two plays later, Aaron Jones ran 34 yards for a 7-0 lead.

In seven games against the Vikings, Campbell is 5-2. He’s 10-for-17 on fourth down while the Vikings are 4-for-9.

“I think our fourth-down scheme on defense is really good,” Vikings safety Josh Metellus said. “And Detroit’s is really good on offense. But those moments are mental, wanting it more than the other guy.

“You look at Dan Campbell on the sideline and you can see how badly he wants to go for it on fourth down. And his team really wants it. And we really want to stop it. We’ll find out Sunday who wants it more.”

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