College Football Playoff picks: Sun Belt dominance at the top? Not last year, maybe not this year

If Ohio State beats Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinals, the sport will be assured of having consecutive national champions from outside the Sun Belt region for the first time in three decades.

The possibility means the playoff's expansion from four to 12 teams accomplished one of its major goals, which was to get more schools from across the nation, not just the warm-weather locales, involved in the championship race.

Cold-weather schools Penn State, a first-time CFP qualifier, and Notre Dame meet in the first semifinal at the Orange Bowl on Thursday. Ohio State and Texas play at the Cotton Bowl on Friday. The winners square off Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

Michigan last season became the first non-Sun Belt school to win the national championship since 2014 (Ohio State). There haven't been two straight non-Sun Belt national champs since Nebraska went back-to-back in 1994-95.

Different non-Sun Belt schools haven't won consecutive titles since 1984-86 (BYU, Oklahoma and Penn State). The latitude of Norman, Oklahoma, puts it on the Sun Belt's northern edge, though residents probably would argue that's a technicality based on the 14-degree temperature Tuesday morning.

Taking Oklahoma out of the mix, you'd have to go back to the Michigan State and Notre Dame teams of the mid 1960s to find two back-to-back champs from up north.

Bundle up for the picks, with seedings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 7 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 6 seed Penn State (plus 2 1/2)

Penn State has displayed great balance in its wins over SMU and Boise State. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen picked up 6 or 7 yards at a time in the first two playoff games, Drew Allar played mistake free and tight end Tyler Warren has continued to be a defensive coordinator's nightmare.

On defense, the Nittany Lions ganged up to keep Boise State's Ashton Jeanty under control, but they'll face a multi-faceted run game with dual-threat QB Riley Leonard and the tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The question is how effective Love will be. The 1,000-yard rusher re-injured his right knee against Georgia and has been wearing a brace at practice.

Notre Dame's defense was stout against Indiana and Georgia, and its 2.21 takeaways per game rank second in the nation. Penn State has turned over the ball once in two CFP games and averages just 0.93 per game.

Pick: Penn State 24-21.

No. 8 seed Ohio State (minus 6) vs. No. 5 seed Texas

Great storylines abound.

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, 0-3 as a starter against Texas when he was at Kansas State, gets another crack at the Longhorns. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers spent his first season at Ohio State. Then there is the potential for home-field advantage for Texas with the game in Arlington, Texas, three hours from Austin.

The Buckeyes' offense, fueled by the Howard-to-Jeremiah Smith connection, has just put up its most yards and points in consecutive games since September. The Longhorns' defense, which allowed 300 yards only once in its first 13 games, has given up 412 and 510 in its first two CFP games.

Ohio State built big first-half leads against Tennessee and Oregon and cruised to wins. Texas had double-digit halftime leads against Clemson and Arizona State but didn't finish the job until late. A stat to consider: The Buckeyes have outscored opponents 156-16 in the third quarter.

The way Ohio State is playing, Texas can't afford to get into a scoring contest. The Longhorns need to establish their running game against a defense that's allowed 4 yards per carry in just three games.

Pick: Ohio State 31-24.

AP predictions scorecard

CFP quarterfinals — Straight-up — 4-0; Against spread — 3-1.

Season: Straight-up — 225-61; Against spread — 144-140.

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