Carney wins Canadian election, while Conservative leader loses his seat in Parliament

TORONTO — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won the federal election, capping a stunning turnaround in fortunes fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war.

Carney’s rival, populist Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, was voted out of his seat in Parliament, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation projected Tuesday.

The loss of his seat representing his Ottawa district in Monday’s election capped a swift decline in fortunes for the firebrand Poilievre, who a few months ago appeared to be a shoo-in to become Canada’s next prime minister and shepherd the Conservatives back into power for the first time in a decade.

But then Trump launched a trade war with Canada and suggested the country should become the 51st state, outraging voters and upending the election.

Poilievre, a career politician, campaigned with Trump-like bravado, taking a page from the ‘’America First’’ president by adopting the slogan ‘’Canada First.‘’ But his similarities to Trump may have ultimately cost him and his party.

The Liberals were projected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives. It wasn’t immediately clear if they would win an outright majority — at least 172 — or would need to rely on a smaller party to pass legislation and remain in power.

Elections Canada said it has decided to pause counting of special ballots — cast by voters who are away from their districts during the election — until later Tuesday morning. The Liberals were leading or elected in 168 seats when the counting was paused, four short of a majority. Elections Canada estimated that the uncounted votes could affect the result in about a dozen districts.

The decision means Canadians won’t know until later in the day whether Carney’s Liberals have won a minority or majority mandate.

In a victory speech, Carney stressed the importance of unity in the face of Washington’s threats. He also said the mutually beneficial system Canada and the U.S. had shared since World War II had ended.

'‘We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,‘’ he said.

'‘As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,‘’ Carney added. ‘’These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never ... ever happen. But we also must recognize the reality that our world has fundamentally changed.‘’

A defeat for the Conservatives

Poilievre hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose.

But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Carney, a two-time central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader and prime minister.

In a concession speech before the race call on his own seat, Poilievre vowed to keep fighting for Canadians.

'‘We are cognizant of the fact that we didn’t get over the finish line yet,‘’ Poilievre told supporters. ‘’We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by. It takes time. It takes work. And that’s why we have to learn the lessons of tonight — so that we can have an even better result the next time Canadians decide the future of the country.‘’

Poilievre can still lead the Conservative Party.

Even with Canadians grappling with the fallout from a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street festival, Trump was trolling them on election day, suggesting again on social media that Canada should become the 51st state and saying he was on their ballot. He also erroneously claimed that the U.S. subsidizes Canada, writing, ‘’It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!‘’

Trump’s truculence has infuriated Canadians, leading many to cancel U.S. vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

Reid Warren, a Toronto resident, said he voted Liberal because Poilievre ‘’sounds like mini-Trump to me.‘’ He said Trump’s tariffs are a worry.

'‘Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,‘’ he said.

Historian Robert Bothwell said Poilievre appealed to the ‘’same sense of grievance’’ as Trump, but that it ultimately worked against him.

'‘The Liberals ought to pay him,‘’ Bothwell said, referring to the U.S. president. ‘’Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.‘’

The Liberal way forward

Carney and the Liberals secured a new term, but they have daunting challenges ahead.

If they don’t win a majority in Parliament, the Liberals might need rely on one of the smaller parties. The Bloc Québécois, which looked set to finish third, is a separatist party from French-speaking Quebec that seeks independence. Trudeau’s Liberals relied on the New Democrats to remain in power for four years, but the progressive party fared poorly on Monday and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, said he was stepping down after eight years in charge.

'‘This is a dramatic comeback, but if the Liberals cannot win a majority of seats, political uncertainty in a new minority Parliament could complicate things for them,‘’ said McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland.

Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.

In addition to the trade war with the U.S. and frosty relationship with Trump, Canada is dealing with a cost-of-living crisis. And more than 75% of its exports go to the U.S., so Trump’s tariffs threat and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

While campaigning, Carney vowed that every dollar the government collects from counter-tariffs on U.S. goods will go toward Canadian workers who are adversely affected by the trade war. He also said he plans to keep dental care in place, offer a middle-class tax cut, return immigration to sustainable levels and increase funding to Canada’s public broadcaster, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

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Associated Press reporter Mike Householder contributed to this report.