Another Kentucky Derby winner not in the Preakness reignites debate about Triple Crown changes

BALTIMORE — Sovereignty is not running out of that starting gate in the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, two weeks after winning the Kentucky Derby. Yet he is still the talk of Pimlico Race Course this week.

That is because owners and trainer Bill Mott opted to skip the Preakness and with it a chance at the Triple Crown because of the short turnaround. It is the second time in four years the Derby winner is not taking part for that reason and the fifth time in seven years overall the Preakness goes on with no Triple Crown on the line.

The trend has reignited the debate about what, if anything needs to change with the Triple Crown, with ideas ranging from putting more space between the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to adding incentives to run in all three to changing the order of the races altogether. Like starters in baseball throwing fewer pitchers, elite horses now typically get much longer time between races, and the situation has put tradition and modernization of the sport head to head.

The two-week turnaround now feels to many around the sport like an antiquated schedule when longer gaps are now the norm with an eye toward horse wear and tear and better performance. Thoroughbreds used to be trained and run at a much quicker interval.

''It's a question that has more than one side to it,'' said Steve Asmussen, who has won more races than any other trainer in North America. ''I love how hard it is to do, which makes it so special. And then would it be making it easier? Does it dilute it? That's a great question. And I think that it'll continue to be debated.''

The debate

It was debated constantly during the 37-year drought between Triple Crown champions from Affirmed in 1978 until Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah swept the three races in 2015. Baffert's Justify did it in 2018, too, and the chorus of voices calling for change was quieted.

But then, for various reasons, there has been a Triple Crown chance in the Preakness only twice in the past seven years. The biggest draw of the middle leg – the anticipation for the possibility – went from being automatic to anything but.

''It is troubling, and it has been troubling for several years,'' said Jerry Bailey, a Hall of Fame jockey who won each of the three races twice and is now an NBC Sports analyst. ''It's completely flip-flopped from my generation when it was the rule that they would run back and the exception that they wouldn't.''

Many top trainers, including Baffert, D. Wayne Lukas, Mark Casse and Michael McCarthy have run a Derby horse in the Preakness or will this year. Others, like Mott, Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox, are more reluctant to take the risk.

"We need them in the game,'' said Casse, who won the Preakness in 2019 with War of Will and has Sandman this year. ''This is important. We want the best horses for our sport.''

When Asmussen won a Triple Crown race for the first time with Curlin in the 2007 Preakness, it came after his horse finished third behind Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Kentucky Derby. Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun went 1-2-3 in the Preakness.

''We are definitely running on a very different environment than we were then,'' Asmussen said. ''Every horse is an individual, every year is different, and it's just very unique circumstances.''

The fallout

The circumstances have deteriorated for the Preakness, on track and on television.

Since pandemic crowd limits were lifted in 2022, attendance has plummeted by 62% from an average of nearly 120,000 from 2009-19 to just over 45,000 annually the past three renditions. NBC ratings have dropped 27.5% over that time from 6.9 million viewers to 5 million.

Lukas, an 89-year-old Hall of Famer who has won the Preakness seven times, acknowledged not having the Derby winner in the field probably hurts for the ''lay person that's not familiar with racing just saying, ‘What's going on there?''' He said for the trainers, it still matters and that those paying attention year-round understand.

But for a sport with an aging fan base that thrived in yesteryear when it was the only legalized form of sports gambling in many places, competition in that space has picked up and there are many options for younger sports fans beyond racing.

A series of safety initiatives have been implemented to make the sport more acceptable to a wider audience. There has been significant progress on that front. Fatalities have decreased at tracks overseen by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, including to a historic low of 0.90 per 1,000 starts last year.

''We've got some momentum going right now,'' Casse said. ''Our game has come a long way in the last year or so. We were headed in the wrong direction. I feel like now we're headed in the right direction. Let's take advantage of this and make some changes.''

The ideas

One thing that is not going to change is the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Beyond that, plenty is up for consideration.

Lukas has for decades pitched moving the Preakness back to Memorial Day weekend and the Belmont to the weekend closest to the Fourth of July. Prominent owner Mike Repole last week suggested making the Belmont the second leg and shifting the Preakness back to third to provide more time in between.

Casse on Tuesday broached the option of a month between the races. Even four weeks apart would be more in line with modern thinking.

''Pretty much all of us are going to say you want to give them four, five, six weeks between races,'' trainer Brendan Walsh said. ''A larger spacing between races would be more favorable to trainers. I think you would get better lineups in the individual races.''

Casse also wondered if bringing back a bonus for winning the Triple Crown would help or creating a points system and an incentive for running in all three races, especially if they're further apart.

Since there is no centralized governing body dictating the calendar, changes would have to be agreed upon by the Maryland Jockey Club, which is taking over the Preakness from 1/ST Racing when Pimlico is scheduled to reopen in 2027, and the New York Racing Association that runs the Belmont.

The opposition

Baffert on Thursday said he hopes nothing changes, citing the excitement of American Pharoah completing the Triple Crown a decade ago.

''The Triple Crown is still important, even though it's tough," Baffert said. ''We need to keep this thing because this is what racing looks forward to.''

McCarthy, who has the Preakness favorite in Journalism after finishing second to Sovereignty in the Derby, is in Baffert's camp, saying: ''Maybe I'm a bit of a traditionalist in that way, but I think the three races in five weeks is good. I think it should stay as it is."

Casse would have agreed a year ago but notes horses move around worldwide and are scrutinized for safety more than in previous generations.

''One of the things that drives me more crazy than anything is when people say, ‘Well, this is the way that we've always done it,''' Casse said. ''I believe that the world gets smarter every day, and if you stand still, you get run over.''

The future

Lukas points to alterations in recent years, including the Belmont shortening from its classic 1½-mile distance to 1¼ miles while temporarily at Saratoga Race Course, as support for change. With the Preakness moving to Laurel Park in 2026 and the Belmont returning to New York City after a short stay in Saratoga, he argues now is the time to redraw the schedule.

But he also thinks whether to run a horse back in two weeks is part of the decision making that has been a hallmark of racing and trainers reading how their horses are doing.

"That horse makes the decision for you,'' Lukas said. ''If you're paying attention, he'll tell you whether you want to come back in two weeks.''

The alternative is stakeholders taking the decision out of trainers' hands and coming up with something that keeps the Preakness and the Triple Crown relevant to casual fans and not just hardcore ones.

''If you can come up with a plan and it makes sense and it can make everybody stronger, shouldn't it happen?'' Casse said. ''That's something that should be worked on. As soon as this race is over this weekend, it should be worked on. That should be the next goal.''

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AP horse racing: https://apnews.com/hub/horse-racing